Bursaphelenchus xylophilus invasion risk prediction method based on ecological niche factor model

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of bursaphelenchus xylophilus invasion risk prediction, and discloses a bursaphelenchus xylophilus invasion risk prediction method based on an ecological niche factor model, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining distribution point data and environment data of an epidemic area of bursaphelenchus xylophilus; performing Kriging interpolation processing on the climate data, calculating the gradient and the slope direction in the topographic data, and obtaining vegetation types and human activity interference data; importing the distribution point data and various environmental data into an ecological niche factor model, and calculating pine wood nematode disease risk early warning; and evaluating the pine wood nematode disease invasion riskbased on the feature matrix and the risk map obtained by calculation. According to the invention, main environmental influence factors influencing pine wood nematode propagation are used; the method is suitable for local conditions, lays a foundation for early warning, monitoring and control work of pine wood nematode diseases and insect pests, provides a scientific basis for measures of forest biodiversity protection and ecological environment protection, and provides a basis and a reference for early warning and control work of forest diseases and insect pests.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of risk prediction of pine wood nematode invasion, and in particular relates to a method for predicting the risk of pine wood nematode invasion based on a niche factor model. Background technique [0002] At present, the pine wood nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) is a highly harmful alien pest originating in the United States. It is also a forestry quarantine pest in my country. It is mainly transmitted in pine trees by vector insects such as Monochamus alternatus, causing a very destructive pine tree disease - pine xylophilus disease, which can affect 36 species of pine species and 8 species of non-pine trees. Tree species are harmful. Since the black pine infected by pine wood nematode was first discovered, pine wood nematode disease has caused direct and indirect losses of hundreds of billions of dollars to China. The spread of pine wood nematode spreads quickly. Once the pine trees are infected, ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] To sum up, the problems existing in the existing technology are: the mainstream method of monitoring pine wood nematode disease at this stage is to manually conduct sampling surveys on pine trees to analyze whether the pine trees are infected with the disease. These monitoring methods are inefficient, time-consuming, and poor in accuracy. And it often has hysteresis. When pine xylophilus is found, it has often caused a large number of pine trees to be infected and died, and the problem of pine forest diseases and insect pests cannot be effectively screened in time.

[0006] Difficulty in solving the above technical problems: the current quarantine and monitoring technology for pine wood nematode disease is lagging behind, and the efficiency is low and the cost is high. It cannot reflect the status of diseases and insect pests in time, and it is easy to cause large-scale infection of pine wood nematode.

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