High-speed railway train arrival time prediction method based on scheduling command system

Abstract

The invention discloses a high-speed railway train arrival time prediction method based on a scheduling command system. The high-speed railway train arrival time prediction method comprises the following steps that historical data of the scheduling command system is subjected to standardized treatment, a space-time state data processing model is constructed based on a block section and a train discretization trajectory, the space-time data of train operation is extracted and then the data is subjected to standardizing treatment; the historical driving data after standardized treatment is analyzed, and operation time parameters of the block sections of various types of trains in the actual operation environment are estimated; and using the estimated operation time parameters of the block sections and combining with the real-time operation environment state and train state, the signal state in the future period of time can be predicted, and finally, the prediction of the arrival time ofthe train is realized through the mutual constraint and interaction relationship between the train and the signal state. According to the method, the accuracy of the prediction result can be improved,and the reliability of the prediction result is ensured.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of rail transit, in particular to a method for predicting the arrival time of high-speed railway trains based on a dispatching command system. Background technique [0002] By predicting the arrival time and possible delay time of the train at the next station in the actual dynamic environment, on the one hand, it can provide a more reliable arrival time prediction for the passenger service system, and on the other hand, it can quickly and accurately identify potential traffic conflicts and formulate scientific The basis for a sound scheduling strategy. [0003] In the current scheme, the real-time driving plan and the current speed of the train are usually used, as well as the section position of the current train, and the arrival time of the train is predicted under the assumption that the train speed remains unchanged. In the actual operating environment, if there is less random interference during the o...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In the actual operating environment, if there is less random interference during the operation of the train, the arrival time of the train will follow the planned arrival time with a high probability, and no matter what prediction method is used, its accuracy rate is high ; However, if affected by a large number of random factors, such as sudden changes in signal light status, temporary speed limit, late opening time of incoming and outgoing routes, late trains, etc., the predicted arrival time of trains will have a large deviation

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