A rapid warning and forecasting method for mountain torrents based on optimal decision-making in multi-dimensional rainfall feature space

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for fast warning and forecasting of mountain torrents based on the optimal decision-making of multi-dimensional rainfall feature space. Firstly, the initial soil water saturation S of successive historical rain and flood processes is calculated based on the three-layer evapotranspiration principle; secondly, the initial soil water saturation S of successive historical rain and flood processes is counted. Rainfall P; then, combined with the DEM data of the watershed, quantify the rainfall spatial distribution characteristics K of successive historical rainstorm processes; calculate the geomorphic unit line of the watershed based on the DEM data; and use P, K, and S as mutually orthogonal coordinate axes to construct a multi-dimensional In the rainfall characteristic space coordinate system, the rainfall data point set is constructed. According to whether the flood process is over the alarm, the corresponding rainfall data point set is divided into two types: the over-alarm subset A and the non-over-alarm subset B, and the two types of sub-sets are solved by combining the SVM principle. The optimal classification decision equation between sets. If an early warning is required, the rainfall is used as the input of the geomorphic unit line to calculate the runoff process at the outlet of the watershed and perform real-time flood forecasting.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of hydrology technology, in particular to a rapid early warning and forecasting method for mountain torrents based on multi-dimensional rainfall characteristic space optimal decision-making. Background technique [0002] There are nearly 9,000 small and medium-sized rivers with a confluence area of ​​200 to 3,000 km2 in my country. In recent years, affected by climate change, sudden floods of small and medium-sized rivers caused by local heavy rainfall have occurred frequently, and have become the main disasters causing casualties. According to statistics, my country's small and medium-sized river flood disasters and mountain torrent geological disasters account for about 70% to 80% of the national flood disaster economic losses, and the death toll accounts for about 2 / 3, posing a serious threat to the safety of people's lives and property. Accurate and reliable early warning and forecasting of sudden flood has become...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Therefore, soil saturation, rainfall, rainfall spatial distribution, and rainfall time distribution are the main factors affecting the critical rainfall. If the influence of these factors on the critical rainfall is ignored, it will lead to inaccurate calculation of the critical rainfall, which is a mountainous small and medium-sized watershed. The prevention and control of mountain torrents leaves hidden dangers

[0006] Therefore, ignoring the characteristics of multi-dimensional rainfall is not conducive to the development of flash flood control in small and medium watersheds based on critical rainfall.

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