Key risk factor and key risk transfer path identification method of cascade hydropower stations based on Bayesian risk network

Abstract

The invention discloses a key risk factor and key risk transfer path identification method of cascade hydropower stations based on the Bayesian risk network, and relates to the field of hydraulic andhydroelectric engineering. The risk of the cascade hydropower stations is characterized by a common-cause failure problem, the advantage of the Bayesian network in solving the common-cause failure problem is utilized, and disadvantages of the traditional fault, event and decision trees in the aspect of risk analysis of hydroelectric engineering are overcome. On the basis of a Bayesian risk networkmodel of the cascade hydropower station, the key risk factor and key risk transfer path identification method is provided, and theoretical and method support for using the Bayesian network method ofthe cascade hydropower stations in risk identification and prevention is provided. The method is simple, clear and highly operable, and has significant application prospects in using the Bayesian network for risk identification and prevention in systems engineering as cascade hydroelectric engineering and civil engineering.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a Bayesian risk network-based identification method for key risk factors and risk transfer key paths of cascade hydropower stations used in risk analysis, assessment, and control in the field of water conservancy and hydropower engineering. Background technique [0002] Cascade hydropower station projects, especially large-scale and giant projects, have the characteristics of large investment, long cycle, complex operating environment, and many influencing factors. It is a highly comprehensive system engineering. Affected by objective uncertain factors such as natural conditions (geology, hydrology, climate, etc.), construction conditions (environment, traffic, rolling, etc.) and subjective uncertain factors in design, construction and procurement, hydropower project construction and During the operation process, new problems and challenges are constantly encountered, and quality defects or hidden dangers may appear in all stag...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Affected by objective uncertain factors such as natural conditions (geology, hydrology, climate, etc.), construction conditions (environment, traffic, rolling, etc.) and subjective uncertain factors in design, construction and procurement, hydropower project construction and During the operation process, new problems and challenges are constantly encountered, and quality defects or hidden dangers may appear in all stages of design, construction, and commissioning, which bring a lot of uncertainty to the safe operation of the project;

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