Mid-and-long term runoff forecasting method based on bacteria foraging optimization algorithm

Abstract

The invention provides a mid-and-long term runoff forecasting method based on a bacteria foraging optimization algorithm, and belongs to the technical field of hydrologic forecasting. In the method, firstly a circulation index which has a large correlation coefficient and has physical influence on the runoff of a drainage basin to be forecasted is taken as a forecast factor, and the forecast factor value is subjected to normalization processing; then the historical samples of the drainage basin to be forecasted are selected and are divided into a training set and a testing set; a support vector regression machine (SVR) model is trained by means of the training set, the parameter value of the model is determined by means of the bacteria foraging optimization algorithm, and the bacteria with the maximum adaptability value is output; the bacteria is decoded, and the optimum value and the preliminary forecasting result of the SVR model parameter are obtained; the preliminary forecasting result is compared with the testing set, and the error is analyzed, if the error is within a set scope, the final forecasting result is outputted. According to the invention, the forecasting accuracy, the generalization ability and the practicality of the mid-and-long term runoff forecasting method employing the SVR model are improved, and the mid-and-long term runoff forecasting method can serve as an effective method for mid-and-long term runoff forecasting.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of hydrological forecasting, and in particular relates to a medium- and long-term runoff forecasting method based on a bacterial foraging optimization algorithm. Background technique [0002] In hydrology, runoff is the flow of water from rainfall and snowmelt, or water that flows along the surface or subsurface under the force of gravity when watering a field. Runoff forecasting belongs to the category of hydrological forecasting and is an important part of applied hydrology. It is an applied science and technology based on mastering objective hydrological laws and predicting future runoff changes. prerequisite for implementation. Runoff forecasting can be divided into short-term runoff forecast and medium- and long-term runoff forecast according to the forecast period. The division standard is generally bounded by the confluence time of the basin. Any forecast period that is less than or equal to the conf...

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Problems solved by technology

[0023] The experimental results show that the above prediction method has problems such as large amount of calculation, long time consumption, a large number of training samples, and the output prediction result is easy to fall into the local minimum and the prediction accuracy is not high.

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