Glacier lake outburst pre-warning method

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of debris flow prevention and control engineering and hydraulic engineering and relates to a glacier lake outburst pre-warning method. A potential outburst glacier lake serves as a pre-warning monitoring region, a glacier tongue slope alpha and a glacier slope direction theta of the potential outburst glacier lake are measured and determined, meteorological data are examined to determine the average positive accumulated temperature Ty2 of glacier lake outburst points in the last two years and the many-year average positive accumulated temperature Ty of glacier lake outburst points, the positive accumulated temperature T0 before certain time and the average temperature sum T7 of seven days before the time are monitored in real time, and with a pre-warning monitoring region glacier lake outburst critical value Cr as a monitored value, glacier lake outburst pre-warning levels are divided according to the monitored value. According to the glacier lake outburst pre-warning method, the internal mechanism of the glacier lake outburst happening degree is researched by researching temperature factors and terrain factors, and a glacier lake pre-warning and forecasting model is established; influences of the temperature factors and the terrain factors on a glacier lake outburst are comprehensively considered, and the glacier lake outburst is forecast quantitatively.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the fields of debris flow prevention and control engineering and water conservancy engineering, and relates to a method for early warning of ice lake outburst. Background technique [0002] Glacial lakes include glacier-eroded lakes, glacier-surface lakes, subglacial lakes, moraine-blocked lakes, and glacier-blocked lakes. Since the mouth of the ice-eroded lake is a rock ridge, the flowing water can only be cut gradually and slowly, so it is difficult to burst suddenly. Although glacier lakes and subglacial lakes are more common in glacial areas, because of their small size and small water storage capacity, even if a rupture occurs, the flow of water will be small. Therefore, in the cases of outburst floods of various glacial lakes, most of them are outbursts of moraine-blocked lakes and glacier-blocked lakes. When discussing glacial lake outbursts, we should focus on them. Generally speaking, the formation of moraine-blocked...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, this prediction method does not take into account the topographical factors that lead to glacial lake collapse, resulting in low prediction accuracy. Glacial lake collapse caused by ice avalanches or ice landslides is the main form of glacial lake collapse in Tibet, which often causes heavy losses and casualties. The impact of terrain factors on the outburst of such glacial lakes cannot be ignored

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