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A Prediction Method of Distribution Network Operational Reliability Based on Arima Model

A prediction method and reliable technology, applied in the direction of power generation prediction, prediction, weather condition prediction, etc. in the AC network, can solve the problems of time dissatisfaction with exponential distribution, etc., to reduce the scope of power outages, reduce safe and stable operation, and improve accuracy sexual effect

Active Publication Date: 2020-07-24
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +3
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Problems solved by technology

Secondly, in the actual production process, the state change of the system has memory, that is, the time when the event occurs does not satisfy the exponential distribution, and the outage events of equipment components are not independent of each other but have a certain correlation

Method used

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  • A Prediction Method of Distribution Network Operational Reliability Based on Arima Model
  • A Prediction Method of Distribution Network Operational Reliability Based on Arima Model
  • A Prediction Method of Distribution Network Operational Reliability Based on Arima Model

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Embodiment Construction

[0076] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0077] Such as figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a method for predicting the reliability of distribution network operation based on the ARIMA model. According to the user's historical power outage times as the input of the ARIMA model, the reliability index of the next year is predicted. Because there are many nodes in the complex distribution network, the number of monthly power outages is highly correlated with time-related attributes such ...

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Abstract

The present invention provides a prediction method based on the Arima -based distribution network -based distribution network. By establishing an ARIMA model to predict the number of monthly power outages, the number of non -stable components will be converted into a stable time sequence, and then only due to variables for the variable only for it to itThe hysteresis values and the current value and lag of random errors are returned to establish a model of the number of monthly power outages; the suspension point of the sampling of the prediction results is taken into consideration.The system recovery time of the secondary device was finally obtained through the annual reliability indicators.The prediction method proposed by the present invention effectively and accurately guide the planning, design, operation and maintenance of future distribution networks, improve the accuracy of the reliability prediction assessment of the distribution network, and realize the safe and stable operation of the distribution network.Re narrowing the range of power outages.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of distribution network operation reliability evaluation, in particular to a method for predicting distribution network operation reliability based on an ARIMA model. Background technique [0002] The distribution network is at the end of the power system and is directly connected to users to distribute electric energy. Large-scale and long-term power outages not only cause huge losses but also threaten social order. The reliability of the distribution network directly affects whether users can obtain qualified electric energy. Therefore, Power companies continue to improve power supply quality and uninterrupted power supply capabilities, enabling the grid to reduce the possibility of power outages within a reasonable investment range. [0003] The structure of the distribution network is complex and huge, and there are many devices. It is composed of overhead lines, cables connecting a large number of power points, l...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04H02J3/00G06Q10/0635G06F17/18G06Q50/06H02J2203/20H02J13/00002H02J3/004Y04S10/30Y04S40/20Y04S10/50Y02E60/00H02J3/0012G01W1/10
Inventor 刁赢龙刘科研孟晓丽盛万兴何开元贾东梨胡丽娟叶学顺唐建岗孙勇张世栋邵志敏李建修张林利刘合金李立生
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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