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Method for predicting operational reliability of power distribution network based on ARIMA model

A forecasting method and reliability technology, applied in the direction of power generation forecasting, forecasting, weather condition forecasting, etc. in the AC network, and can solve the problem that the time does not meet the exponential distribution.

Active Publication Date: 2015-11-18
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +3
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Problems solved by technology

Secondly, in the actual production process, the state change of the system has memory, that is, the time when the event occurs does not satisfy the exponential distribution, and the outage events of equipment components are not independent of each other but have a certain correlation

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  • Method for predicting operational reliability of power distribution network based on ARIMA model
  • Method for predicting operational reliability of power distribution network based on ARIMA model
  • Method for predicting operational reliability of power distribution network based on ARIMA model

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Embodiment Construction

[0076] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0077] Such as figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a method for predicting the reliability of distribution network operation based on the ARIMA model. According to the user's historical power outage times as the input of the ARIMA model, the reliability index of the next year is predicted. Because there are many nodes in the complex distribution network, the number of monthly power outages is highly correlated with time-related attributes such ...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for predicting the operational reliability of a power distribution network based on an ARIMA model, and the method comprises the steps: predicting the number of times of monthly power failures of a user through building the ARIMA model; enabling an unstable element failure time sequence to be converted into a stable time sequence, and then carrying out the regression of the lagged value of a dependent variable and the present value and lagged value of a random error term to build a user monthly power failure time model; sampling a shutdown point according to the prediction results; considering real-time load operation conditions; building a fault mode impact table based on a TLOC rule and a PLOC rule; calculating the system recovery time for the shutdown of equipment at each time, and finally obtaining a yearly reliability index. The method proposed by the invention guides the planning, design, operation and maintenance of a future power grid effectively and accurately, improves the accuracy of prediction and estimation of the operational reliability of the power distribution network, achieves the stable operation of the power distribution network, reduces the frequency of power failures, and reduces the power failure range.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of distribution network operation reliability evaluation, in particular to a method for predicting distribution network operation reliability based on an ARIMA model. Background technique [0002] The distribution network is at the end of the power system and is directly connected to users to distribute electric energy. Large-scale and long-term power outages not only cause huge losses but also threaten social order. The reliability of the distribution network directly affects whether users can obtain qualified electric energy. Therefore, Power companies continue to improve power supply quality and uninterrupted power supply capabilities, enabling the grid to reduce the possibility of power outages within a reasonable investment range. [0003] The structure of the distribution network is complex and huge, and there are many devices. It is composed of overhead lines, cables connecting a large number of power points, l...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04H02J3/00G06Q10/0635G06F17/18G06Q50/06H02J2203/20H02J13/00002H02J3/004Y04S10/30Y04S40/20Y04S10/50Y02E60/00H02J3/0012G01W1/10
Inventor 刁赢龙刘科研孟晓丽盛万兴何开元贾东梨胡丽娟叶学顺唐建岗孙勇张世栋邵志敏李建修张林利刘合金李立生
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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