A long-term trend prediction method for significant wave height of ocean waves based on reanalysis data

Abstract

The invention relates to a sea wave significant wave height long-term trend prediction method based on reanalysis data. The sea wave significant wave height long-term trend prediction method is characterized by comprising the steps that (1) weather forecast data of an ERA-Interim reanalysis data set at each time frequency are collected, (2) coordinates of all lattice points are obtained, (3) SLP anomaly and standard deviation are calculated, (4) principal component analysis of the SLP anomaly is conducted, (5) Box-Cox transformation is conducted on sea area data, (6) a predictive factor of sea wave significant wave height is calculated, (7) the standard deviation of the significant wave height and the predictive factor is calculated, (8) the predictive factor is applied into a prediction model, (9) a significant wave height lagged value is applied into the model, (10) SLP field prediction on the basis of EOF is carried out, (11) predictive factor optimization selection is conducted, (12) the sea wave significant wave height is predicted through the model, (13) the prediction level is evaluated, (14) the sea wave significant wave height long-term trend is calculated, and (15) a significant wave height long-term trend chart is drawn. According to the sea wave significant wave height long-term trend prediction method based on the reanalysis data, the significant wave height long-term trend of multiple time frequencies can be predicted, and accuracy is high.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of ocean wave parameter forecasting, and in particular relates to a long-term trend forecasting method for the effective wave height of ocean waves based on reanalysis data. Background technique [0002] Ocean waves have a non-negligible impact on people's production and life, such as marine navigation, coastal port construction, waterway engineering, and fishery production, which are closely related to ocean waves. In addition, the safety of offshore oil platforms is also closely related to the waves. The effective wave height of ocean waves is an important parameter reflecting the characteristics of ocean waves, so it is of great practical significance to analyze and predict the trend of effective wave height of ocean waves. Although traditional observation methods such as buoys can accurately obtain the change information of the wave height, they can only obtain the change of the wave at a fixed point, a...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Although traditional observation methods such as buoys can accurately obtain information on changes in wave height, they can only obtain changes in fixed points, and the coverage is very limited. Currently, it is difficult to obtain continuous data for more than 20 years Buoy observation data of sea surface waves

With the maturity of satellite remote sensing technology, satellite data are gradually being applied. Although the satellite data on sea wave height have a wide coverage, they are only the data of the past 20 years at most, which seriously restricts the research on the long-term trend of sea wave effective wave height. reliability

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