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Method for predicting forest fire hazard day occurrence probability

A forest fire and probability of occurrence technology, which is applied in forecasting, data processing applications, calculations, etc., can solve the problems of no accuracy evaluation of model prediction results, inability to calculate the probability of fire occurrence, and no good solution.

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-06-25
INST OF FOREST ECOLOGY ENVIRONMENT & PROTECTION CHINESE ACAD OF FORESTRY
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Problems solved by technology

The forest fire danger level quickly checks the slide rule and the grassland fire danger level only considers simple meteorological factors, and the simple fire danger level division cannot calculate the probability of fire occurrence, which belongs to the fire danger weather level estimation
The forest fire prediction method based on data mining uses monthly data for simple prediction, which does not solve the input of factors representing combustibles and potential fire behavior conditions well, and only judges the impact of different factors on forest fires from the correlation between different factors. impact, and there is no assessment of the accuracy of the model's predictions

Method used

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  • Method for predicting forest fire hazard day occurrence probability
  • Method for predicting forest fire hazard day occurrence probability
  • Method for predicting forest fire hazard day occurrence probability

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Embodiment Construction

[0042] The technical solutions of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and through specific implementation methods.

[0043] Taking Greater Khingan Mountains (including the Greater Khingan Mountains in Heilongjiang and most of the Greater Khingan Mountains in Inner Mongolia) as an example to study the probability of forest fire occurrence.

[0044] Step 1. Determine the forest fire historical data, meteorological data, FWI component factors, and Julian date as the influencing factors affecting forest fires and process the data;

[0045] (1) Fire data processing

[0046]Daily fire data from 1972 to 2006 in Heilongjiang Province and the Daxinganling area of ​​Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, including the date of disaster occurrence and the number of fires. When analyzing the Greater Khingan Mountains as a whole, it is not necessary to consider the distribution of internal fire points, but accurate time records are...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting forest fire hazard day occurrence probability , comprising steps of 1) determining fire hazard historic data, meteorological data, FWI factors of all groups, and Julian dates as impact factors having influence on the forest fire hazard and processing data, 2) performing multicollinearity diagnosis through data abnd choosing impact factors the expansion factors of which are smaller than 10 through, 3) choosing the impact factors having obvious impact on the fire hazard through Logistic Forward Wald analysis, and other two steps. The invention gives full consideration to the related factors having impact on the fire hazard in the region, performs evaluation on the probability of occurrence of forest fire hazard through a quantification method and has more accuracy on determination of dangerousness of occurrence of fire hazard.

Description

technical field [0001] The patent of the present invention relates to a method for predicting forest fires, in particular to a method for predicting the daily occurrence probability of forest fires. Background technique [0002] Forest fire is a natural disaster that occurs widely in the world today, is sudden and destructive, and is difficult to deal with. With global warming, fires are on the rise. In recent years, the occurrence of extraordinarily large and major forest fires in my country is also on the rise, and the situation of forest fire prevention in my country has been in a severe state. Forest fires cause heavy economic losses and environmental damage, and seriously threaten the safety of residents' lives and properties. [0003] At present, the means of forest fire risk prediction mainly adopts fire risk forecast, forest fire risk weather forecast and forest fire risk level forecast only predict the level of risk of forest fire caused by specific weather conditi...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
Inventor 王明玉舒立福田晓瑞赵凤君
Owner INST OF FOREST ECOLOGY ENVIRONMENT & PROTECTION CHINESE ACAD OF FORESTRY
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