Rapid flood forecasting method and device based on rainfall similarity and model parameter intelligent adaptation

Abstract

The invention provides a rapid flood forecasting method and device based on rainfall similarity and model parameter intelligent adaptation, and the method comprises the steps: 1, building a rainfall flood conversion model, and recognizing the rainfall flood features; step 2, calculating the similarity of flood-causing factors: starting from the magnitude of flood-causing rainstorm, the rainfall pattern and the size of each component influencing rainfall in the early stage, calculating a similarity index vector based on a similarity theory, and quantifying the similarity among the flood-causing factors; step 3, transferring parameters, and constructing adaptation mapping among rainfall and flood samples: mutually transferring the parameters among the rainfall and flood samples, creating a model precision matrix after parameter transfer, establishing mapping between similarity index vectors and the precision matrix, and determining the importance degree among similarity indexes; and step 4, intelligent parameter adaptation: based on similarity calculation, clustering analysis and collaborative filtering theories, the reference model uses each set of parameters to forecast the precision of historical similar flood, the parameter with the highest precision is adapted to the model, and flood forecasting is carried out.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of flood forecasting, and in particular relates to a rapid flood forecasting method and device based on intelligent adaptation of rainfall similarity and model parameters. [0002] technical background [0003] Flood forecasting is an indispensable basic work that directly serves the national economic construction, and plays an important role in flood control and disaster reduction, water resource development and utilization, and water conservancy project construction. Accurate flood forecasting can provide technical support for hydrological forecasting for basin flood control dispatching and efficient utilization of water resources, with significant comprehensive benefits. [0004] In the process of actual flood forecasting, similar floods that have occurred in history are often used for reference. The existing technology uses the characteristics and process of stormwater to describe the similarity between ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The existing technology uses the characteristics and process of stormwater to describe the similarity between floods, the subject of similarity calculation is subjective, and some information cannot be obtained in the forecast stage

Moreover, the prior art often uses the equal weight method or the expert scoring method to determine the weight of the similarity index, which is more empirical

Finally, the existing technology scales or extends similar historical floods to predict future floods, which lacks scientific and real-time

The specific problems are: 1. It is difficult to determine the similarity calculation subject of historical floods and floods to be forecasted; 2. It is difficult to determine the importance of similarity indicators; 3. The method of using historical similar floods for forecasting lacks scientific and real-time

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