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Natural gas demand prediction method and device, electronic equipment and medium

A technology of demand forecasting and natural gas, applied in the field of natural gas demand forecasting, can solve the problems of component extraction, poor operability, and unsuitable for actual operation and use.

Pending Publication Date: 2022-03-08
CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEM CORP +1
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0007] However, only the correlation analysis of the influencing factors was carried out without extracting the necessary components of various factors to eliminate the collinearity between the variables. big error
Moreover, this method uses seven single models to predict separately, the process is cumbersome, the operability is poor, and it is not suitable for actual operation, and the direct crossing of each model has certain repeatability, so it is necessary to use an optimization method to determine the weight of different models Invisibly increased the difficulty of operation

Method used

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  • Natural gas demand prediction method and device, electronic equipment and medium
  • Natural gas demand prediction method and device, electronic equipment and medium

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Embodiment 1

[0174] figure 1 A flowchart showing the steps of a natural gas demand forecasting method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0175] Such as figure 1 As shown, the natural gas demand forecasting method includes: step 101, constructing a gray isodimensional supplementary model; step 102, based on the gray isodimensional supplementary model, making a preliminary prediction on the influencing factors, and obtaining the predicted value of the influencing factors; step 103, using the natural gas history The consumption data is the dependent variable, and the historical value of the influencing factors is used as the independent variable to construct a partial least squares regression model; step 104, predicting natural gas demand according to the predicted values ​​of the influencing factors and the partial least squares regression model.

[0176] Nine core influencing factors GDP (x1), urban pipeline length (x2), total population (x3), urbanization rate (x4), pr...

Embodiment 2

[0231] Figure 5 A block diagram of a natural gas demand forecasting device according to an embodiment of the present invention is shown.

[0232] Such as Figure 5 As shown, the natural gas demand forecasting device includes:

[0233] Gray equal-dimensional complementary model construction module 201, constructing gray equal-dimensional complementary model;

[0234] Predicted value calculation module 202, according to the gray equal-dimensional complementary model, preliminarily predicts the influencing factors, and obtains the predicted value of the influencing factors;

[0235] Partial least squares regression model construction module 203, using natural gas historical consumption data as the dependent variable, and taking the historical values ​​of influencing factors as independent variables, constructing a partial least squares regression model;

[0236] The prediction module 204 predicts the demand for natural gas according to the predicted values ​​of the influencin...

Embodiment 3

[0257] The present disclosure provides an electronic device comprising: a memory storing executable instructions; a processor running the executable instructions in the memory to implement the above natural gas demand forecasting method.

[0258] An electronic device according to an embodiment of the present disclosure includes a memory and a processor.

[0259] The memory is used to store non-transitory computer readable instructions. Specifically, the memory may include one or more computer program products, which may include various forms of computer-readable storage media, such as volatile memory and / or non-volatile memory. The volatile memory may include, for example, random access memory (RAM) and / or cache memory (cache). The non-volatile memory may include, for example, a read-only memory (ROM), a hard disk, a flash memory, and the like.

[0260] The processor may be a central processing unit (CPU) or other form of processing unit having data processing capabilities a...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a natural gas demand prediction method and device, electronic equipment and a medium. The method can comprise the following steps: constructing a gray equal-dimension progressive complement model; according to a gray equal-dimension progressive complementation model, performing preliminary prediction on the influence factors to obtain predicted values of the influence factors; taking natural gas historical consumption data as dependent variables, taking historical values of influence factors as independent variables, and constructing a partial least square regression model; and predicting the natural gas demand according to the predicted values of the influence factors and a partial least square regression model. According to the method, the system noise is eliminated through the gray equal-dimension progressive complement model, and the development trend of various influence factors is predicted and analyzed; the partial least square model is used for carrying out regression modeling on the natural gas historical consumption and various influence factors, so that not only can the natural gas demand be reasonably and accurately predicted, but also the development trend and the change rule of the natural gas demand can be accurately mastered; the method has important guiding significance in natural gas production management, scheduling optimization, development planning, strategy making and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of oil and gas development forecasting, and more specifically, to a natural gas demand forecasting method, device, electronic equipment and medium. Background technique [0002] Under the characteristics of the era of low-carbon transformation and the "new normal" situation of economic development, the requirement for green energy transformation is becoming increasingly urgent. It is imperative to adjust the energy consumption structure in a timely manner and increase the proportion of natural gas and other green and low-carbon energy consumption. Therefore, it is of more practical significance to scientifically and reasonably predict the total demand for natural gas in the next few years or even ten years, and provide reference for relevant departments to formulate corresponding development plans and strategies. [0003] However, the current research on natural gas demand forecasting is still in its infancy, and fore...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/02
CPCG06Q10/06315G06Q50/02
Inventor 刘建勋徐孝轩李长河亢泽涛王荣娟张园园
Owner CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEM CORP
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