Water resource planning method based on simulation and considering climate change

Abstract

The invention discloses a water resource planning method based on simulation and considering climate change used for supporting regional water resource management among different water departments under complex and uncertain conditions. According to the method, a plurality of prediction models is coupled to reasonably predict the surface water resource quantity in a research area and the water demand of each large water consumption department in the area, and compared with a single prediction model, the coupled prediction model can improve the prediction precision to a certain extent; and different climate change scenes are constructed to drive the coupling prediction model, so that the limitation of influence of future climate change on water resource allocation is effectively solved. Onthis basis, a double-layer multi-objective planning model considering multiple uncertainty is established, the constructed optimization model is effectively solved through a hybrid algorithm, and finally a reasonable water resource optimal configuration scheme for selection under consideration of climate change and scene analysis is obtained.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of intelligent algorithm and uncertain water resource optimal allocation, and specifically relates to a water resource planning method that combines artificial intelligence algorithm and uncertain optimization technology for water resource scheduling management, and constructs a water resource planning method for scenario analysis of future climate change. Background technique [0002] With the development of society and the expansion of cities, the unsustainable planning and management of regional water resources has exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand of water resources, resulting in serious waste of surface water and serious exploitation of groundwater. In addition, extreme weather conditions can affect the uncertainty of existing water supplies, leading to economic risks to water management systems, thereby creating obstacles to water resource allocation. Therefore, water resource...

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Problems solved by technology

3) Uncertainty in the process of data parameter collection: some data is missing, and insufficient data will inevitably bring some uncertainty

On the other hand, the previous multi-objective model solving methods are more about converting multi-objective problems into single-objective problems through dimensionality reduction methods to obtain the optimal solution, which makes the final result have a certain subjective influence.

Since different decision makers have different preferences for different goals, multiple goals cannot be optimal at the same time, the optimal solution obtained under this condition still ignores the hierarchical relationship, and it is difficult to solve the above problems

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