Satellite long-period heteroscedasticity degradation prediction and evaluation method based on GRU and GARCH

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a satellite long-period heteroscedasticity degradation prediction and evaluation method based on GRU and GARCH, and the design idea comprises: firstly carryingout preprocessing and time sequence decomposition on an original parameter for the long-term degradation and heteroscedasticity characteristics of telemetry parameter data collected by a sensor, andpredicting a trend term through a GRU model. In order to solve the problem of long-term degradation, the GARCH model predicts residual terms to solve the problem of heteroscedasticity; and a satelliteparameter prediction result is obtained in combination with a satellite seasonal period rule. Meanwhile, normal fluctuation threshold information of the satellite is extracted from the residual termand is combined with the season term and the trend term, so that construction of the satellite stability consistency adaptive threshold is realized, and the satellite stability consistency health assessment method is provided based on the adaptive threshold. The method can accurately predict the telemetry data which is greatly influenced and fluctuated by the satellite environment and multiple tasks, and the threshold value can be updated on line and is more effective and accurate compared with a traditional method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the satellite field, in particular to a GRU and GARCH-based satellite long-period heteroscedastic degradation prediction and evaluation method. Background technique [0002] Since the satellite is in the harsh outer space environment such as solar radiation for a long time, unpredictable abnormalities or failures may occur during its in-orbit operation. Taking measures in advance to detect these unpredictable abnormalities or failures in time is crucial to ensuring the long-term stable operation of the satellite. important. Therefore, anomaly detection of telemetry data is of great significance in the fields of satellite troubleshooting and real-time health monitoring. Considering the complex design structure and harsh working environment of the satellite, it is impossible to directly perform anomaly detection in the outer space environment. At present, by installing multiple sensors on each component of the satellite, the on...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, there are also certain patent achievements in satellite degradation prediction evaluation and anomaly monitoring, such as "A satellite anomaly detection method against network autoencoder", "A method for automatic error detection of satellite telemetry parameter position information", " A Data-Driven Satellite Subsystem Anomaly Prediction Method", etc. Traditional anomaly monitoring methods are based on artificially set thresholds to monitor the deviation between satellite parameters and thresholds. Such methods are vulnerable to artificially set thresholds. Due to satellite fluctuations and seasonal changes in parameters, the traditional threshold setting is relatively rough, and the monitoring effect on some abnormal points is limited

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