Oil-immersed insulation paper board partial discharge failure probability characterization method based on double-risk competition model

Abstract

The invention discloses an oil-immersed insulation paper board partial discharge failure probability characterization method based on a double-risk competition model. The method comprises the steps: carrying out partial discharge processing on a plurality of oil-immersed insulation paper board samples under a certain external voltage amplitude, and recording the time from the start of the partialdischarge of each sample to the breakdown of the paper board and the number of partial discharge times in the time; respectively fitting the two variables by adopting three-parameter Weibull distribution; and finally, calculating an oil-immersed insulation paperboard double-risk competition insulation failure probability model considering time and discharge times by adopting the double-risk competition model, and carrying out visual representation. According to the method, the insulation failure time and the insulation failure discharge frequency are comprehensively considered, and the insulation failure probability of the oil-immersed insulation paper board under the partial discharge effect is predicted from the perspective of double-risk competition, so that the insulation failure probability of the oil-immersed insulation paper board under the partial discharge effect can be effectively and comprehensively calculated, and the one-sidedness of a univariate model is avoided.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of high voltage and insulation, and relates to a method for evaluating the insulation state of an oil-immersed insulating cardboard, in particular to a method for characterizing the partial discharge failure probability of an oil-immersed insulating cardboard based on a double-risk competition model. Background technique [0002] With the continuous expansion of my country's power grid, the amount of oil-immersed electrical equipment continues to increase, but at the same time, the proportion of oil-immersed electrical equipment failures caused by partial discharge is also increasing year by year. The main insulating material of oil-immersed electrical equipment is oil-impregnated insulating cardboard. During the operation of the equipment, the cardboard needs to withstand high voltage. Although sufficient electrical strength has been left in the structural design, accidental factors in the material manufactu...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] Aiming at the one-sided problem in the prior art that only one variable is used to estimate the failure probability of oil-impregnated insulating paperboard under the action of partial discharge, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a characterization of partial discharge failure probability of oil-impregnated insulating paperboard based on a double-risk competition model method, and based on the failure time of oil-impregnated insulating paperboard under partial discharge and the probability distribution of failure discharge times, a double-risk competition model for oil-impregnated insulating paperboard was proposed to predict the failure probability of oil-impregnated insulating paperboard under partial discharge

Images