Squall line system forecasting method and forecasting system

Abstract

The invention discloses a novel squall line system forecasting method and forecasting system and belongs to the field of squall line forecasting and disaster prevention and reduction. The invention provides a forecasting method and a corresponding forecasting system through steps of quality control, narrow band echo identification, convergence line identification, squall line wind positioning andearly warning and squall line wind forecasting. Based on quality control of radar original base data, structural features and geometrical features of narrow-band echoes of an intensity field are fullyutilized, and a bidirectional gradient algorithm is designed to identify the narrow-band echoes; an abrupt change of wind is identified through radial convergence in a velocity field; a squall line positioning algorithm is used for integrating bidirectional gradient and shear convergence to obtain a result; and an accurate position of squall line wind is determined, vector field extrapolation isperformed by combining an optical flow method with a neural network technology so that a two-hour short-time proximity prediction service is provided, a squall line weather system in a radar echo canbe identified and positioned, 0-2-hour short-time proximity forecasting can be realized, and a forecasting effect is accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to weather forecast technology, in particular to a method and a forecast system for short-term nowcasting of squall line wind. Background technique [0002] A squall line is a type of severe convective weather process. The horizontal scale is usually hundreds of kilometers, and the typical life cycle is about 6-12 hours. It is a mesoscale convective system that develops rapidly and moves fast. Thunderstorms, strong winds, heavy precipitation, hail and other strong convective weather can cause extremely strong destructive power and easily cause huge economic losses. [0003] Both squall line systems and typhoons are extreme and disastrous weather systems, and the forecasting difficulty is much greater than that of non-extreme and non-disaster weather systems. It has always been a difficult problem in international meteorological science. There have been many research results at home and abroad on the occurrence conditions and orga...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At present, the research on squall line gale mainly focuses on the case analysis of the weather process. The forecast of squall line gale is still based on the traditional meteorological forecast method. The accuracy of identification and forecast is limited, and it is easy to cause misjudgment.

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