Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma incidence risk predicting method, constructing method and application

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of an information predicting model, and discloses an esophageal squamous cell carcinoma incidence risk predicting method, a constructing method and application. The esophageal squamous cell carcinoma incidence risk predicting module is: Y=5.5*age50-59 / 8.0*age60-69+1.5*male+2.5*(upper gastrointestinal cancer family history)+1.5*smoking(30pack-year / 2.5*smoking>=pack-year+1.5*(pickled food intake frequency)>=1 / week+1.0*(fresh fruit intake frequency)<1 / week+2.5*(oesophagus clinical symptom+1.5*(upper gastrointestinal tract related disease history). Themodel provided by the invention can further improve sensitivity, specificity and positive predicted value under a precondition that the participated clinical screening number (high-risk population portion) is not increased, and furthermore reduces the number of persons who require clinical screening in finding one esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patient, namely the method provided by the invention can further improve screening efficiency.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of information prediction models, and in particular relates to a risk information prediction model, construction method and application of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Background technique [0002] At present, the closest existing technology: Esophageal cancer is a major malignant tumor that threatens human health. In 2018, there were about 572,000 new cases of esophageal cancer worldwide, and about 509,000 deaths, ranking in the order of incidence and cause of death of malignant tumors. 7th and 6th in the order. According to the histological type, esophageal cancer can be divided into squamous cell carcinoma (esophageal squamous cell carcinomas, ESCC) and adenocarcinoma (esophageal adenocarcinomas, EAC). The global distribution of these two pathological types: esophageal cancer is mainly distributed in Asia, mainly in China, and esophageal adenocarcinoma is mainly distributed in Europe and America, ...

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Problems solved by technology

3. Lack of certain trace elements: molybdenum, iron, zinc, fluorine, selenium, etc. are low in grain, vegetables, and drinking water

[0008] (1) Most of the esophageal cancer incidence prediction models established at home and abroad are based on the risk prediction models of esophageal adenocarcinoma constructed by Western populations, which are not suitable for Chinese populations

[0009] (2) The current models based on the Chinese population are based on hospital-based or single-center population-based case-control studies, which are limited in terms of population representation, so it is difficult to serve the current screening and early diagnosis and early treatment of esophageal cancer in my country project

[0010] (3) There are currently no biomarkers that can be used in the screening of esophageal cancer in the population. Therefore, the construction of a risk prediction model for esophageal cancer based on non-genetic risk factors is a feasible technical solution for identifying high-risk groups of esophageal cancer

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