Precipitation forecasting system for landing tropical cyclone process

Abstract

The invention relates to a precipitation forecasting system for a landing tropical cyclone process, and the system comprises a generalized initial value construction module which constructs generalized initial values of a plurality of variables having an influence on a forecast amount, and transmits the generalized initial values to an initial value similarity discrimination module; the initial value similarity discrimination module discriminates the similarity of each single variable contained in the generalized initial value; sequentially calculating path similarity area indexes of the target TC path and the historical TC path in the similar region; comparing the time of the starting point of the target TC with the time when the historical TC generates rainfall to the land for the firsttime and marking the historical TC with the difference not exceeding a certain time, and comparing the intensity of the target TC with the intensity of the historical TC and marking the historical TCwith the difference not exceeding a certain intensity level; arranging the marked historical TC numbers from small to large according to the TSAI values to obtain the sequence of the marked historicalTC, and determining m optimal similarity initial values to be sent to the ensemble forecasting module; and the ensemble forecasting module acquires the corresponding forecast quantity of the optimalsimilar initial value and ensembles the forecast quantity.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to weather forecasting technology, in particular to a precipitation forecasting system for a landing tropical cyclone process. Background technique [0002] For the precipitation of landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs), numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are the mainstream, but their forecasting capabilities are still very limited. If an accurate model fully satisfied by the real atmosphere exists and can be used for forecasting, the accuracy of landfall TC precipitation forecast can be significantly improved. The exact mode solution (initial value ψ 0 The forecast quantity) is the actual observation after the start time of the report, although it cannot be directly obtained by forward integration, but because the historical observation contains a large number of similar initial values ​​and their corresponding forecast quantities (that is, the specific solution of the accurate model), If it is identified from the histori...

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Problems solved by technology

The exact mode solution (initial value ψ 0 The forecast quantity) is the actual observation after the start time of the forecast, although it cannot be directly obtained by forward integration, but because the historical observation contains a large number of similar initial values ​​and their corresponding forecast quantities (that is, the specific solution of the accurate model), If it is identified from the historical observation data and the initial value ψ 0 Several historical initial values ​​that are most similar and obtain the observations of their corresponding predictors, and then set the initial value ψ 0 The error between the initial value and the similar historical initial value is regarded as the initial value disturbance, and the original forecasting problem can be changed into an ensemble forecasting problem

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