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Dynamic Bayesian network modeling method based on coal gasification equipment

A dynamic Bayesian and network modeling technology, applied in the field of security risk assessment, can solve problems such as no dynamic analysis model

Pending Publication Date: 2020-06-12
LIAONING UNIVERSITY OF PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL TECHNOLOGY
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

Therefore, how to carry out dynamic risk assessment on the operation process of coal gasification process equipment and equipment, reveal the dynamics and disaster-causing mechanism of accident breeding and occurrence, and scientifically avoid risks are the main concerns and important issues to be solved urgently in the modern coal gasification industry. During dynamic analysis, there is no dynamic analysis model

Method used

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  • Dynamic Bayesian network modeling method based on coal gasification equipment
  • Dynamic Bayesian network modeling method based on coal gasification equipment
  • Dynamic Bayesian network modeling method based on coal gasification equipment

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Embodiment 1

[0061] like figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a dynamic Bayesian network modeling method based on coal gasification equipment, including:

[0062] S1. Analyze the coal gasification equipment, obtain several input events of the coal gasification equipment, and establish a static / dynamic fault tree model of each coal gasification equipment, and the static / dynamic fault tree model includes a root node, an intermediate node, and a leaf node;

[0063] Specifically, coal gasification equipment can be divided into key equipment, main equipment and general equipment, and the main dangers and harmful factors existing in the operation of each equipment in the coal gasification process, as well as the mutual influence relationship between various factors, can be systematically analyzed;

[0064] Coal gasification enterprises require many and complicated equipments for production, each device is different in height and size, combined with static and dynamic, complicated p...

Embodiment 2

[0123] The coal gasification unit consists of coal grinding and drying unit, pulverized coal pressurization and conveying unit, gasification and washing unit, slag removal unit, gray water treatment unit and gasification utility system. At the same time, supporting the construction of coal gasification device inner pipe gallery, slag conveying and gasification slag storage system. Among them, the main function of the pulverized coal pressurized conveying system is to provide stable and sufficient pulverized coal to the gasifier. If the system has problems such as coal powder leakage, poor coal feeding, large pressure fluctuations in the feed tank, and failure of the solid flow meter, etc., the pulverized coal transportation will be unstable, and then the burner in the gasifier will be blown off, A series of problems such as overheating of the combustion chamber. Taking the pulverized coal pressurized conveying system as an example, the risk factors of the system are analyzed ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a dynamic Bayesian network modeling method based on coal gasification equipment. The method includes: systematically investigating and analyzing Risk influence factors of coalgasification key equipment; accurately identifying process deviation hazard factors based on an analysis result, qualitatively analyzing possible reasons and consequences of deviation, and constructing a static / dynamic fault tree to describe a time sequence and a logic relationship of accident occurrence on the basis of the possible reasons and consequences; converting the fault tree into a dynamic Bayesian network model according to a conversion rule from the static / dynamic logic gate to the dynamic Bayesian network; finally, importing historical information of the preamble event, determininga prior probability of the root node by applying a fuzzy set theory, deriving a posterior accident occurrence probability of the root node by virtue of a powerful reverse reasoning function of the Bayesian network, and sorting, thereby determining a weak link of the system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of safety risk assessment, in particular to a dynamic Bayesian network modeling method based on coal gasification equipment. Background technique [0002] Coal energy is an important energy resource in people's daily life. However, coal gasification is an emerging industry. The development of a safe, green and environmentally friendly coal gasification industry can effectively supplement the shortage of my country's oil and gas resources. However, in the production process of coal gasification, most of the process conditions are harsh, the production equipment is complicated, the intermediate reactions are diversified, there are many unsafe factors such as high temperature and high pressure, and most of the raw and auxiliary materials and products are explosive, toxic, corrosive, etc. Hazardous properties. In view of the particularity of the production process of coal gasification enterprises, the occurrenc...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06N7/06G06N7/00G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06N7/06G06Q10/0635G06Q50/06G06N7/01
Inventor 杨雪峰王承彬孙铁张素香多依丽王志荣郭品坤
Owner LIAONING UNIVERSITY OF PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL TECHNOLOGY
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