Dynamic critical rainfall calculation method based on entropy decision method

Abstract

The invention relates to a dynamic critical rainfall calculation method based on an entropy decision method. The method comprises the steps of (S1) collecting and sorting actually-measured accumulatedrainfall and corresponding flood peak flow data of multiple floods in a drainage basin and dividing the data into multiple sample series according to an early-stage soil wetting degree and duration,(S2) performing edge distribution fitting on the collected sample series and selecting distribution with a best fitting effect by using K-S inspection, (S3) constructing joint distribution by utilizing a Frank Copula function to obtain joint probability distribution of accumulated rainfall and corresponding flood peak flows under different early-stage soil wetting degrees and different duration conditions, and (S4) plugging the joint probability distribution and corresponding parameters into a Bayesian utility function and an expected utility-entropy risk function formula, considering conditions of subjective factors, objective factors and the simultaneous influence of the subjective factors and the objective factors, and minimizing the utility function and risk to obtain critical rainfallvalues under different early-stage soil wetting degrees and under different duration conditions. According to the method, a risk decision-making method is used to solve a problem of determining mountain torrent disaster early warning indexes.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of early warning and forecasting of mountain torrent disasters, and more specifically, to a dynamic critical rainfall calculation method based on an entropy decision-making method. Background technique [0002] Mountain torrent disasters refer to sudden, strong and destructive floods in hilly areas caused by short-term torrential rains. In recent years, with the rapid development of my country's economy and society and the intensification of extreme weather, mountain torrent disasters have become one of the most serious natural disasters in my country. According to statistics, the direct economic losses caused by mountain torrent disasters in my country account for about 70% of the national flood disaster losses, and the casualties account for about 80%. Most areas in my country belong to the monsoon climate, with concentrated rainfall periods, coupled with the vast area of ​​mountainous areas in our country, and ser...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The present invention provides a dynamic critical rainfall calculation method based on the entropy decision-making method in order to overcome the inaccurate calculation of the critical rainfall in the above-mentioned prior art. The determination of the critical rainfall by this method has strong rationality and accuracy, and the method is adopted The critical rainfall when the risk is minimized can be obtained, so that decision makers can make decisions with the least risk by comparing the measured rainfall with the critical rainfall in the face of upcoming flash floods

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