National production total value prediction method and system based on linear regression model

Abstract

The invention discloses a national production total value prediction method and system based on a linear regression model, and relates to the field of macroeconomy, and the method comprises the steps:building a linear regression equation through employing the registration number of a newly-added enterprise as an independent variable x and the growth rate of the national production total value asa dependent variable y; estimating coefficients in the linear regression equation through a least square method to obtain a growth rate prediction model; performing model evaluation on the growth rateprediction model to obtain a standard prediction model; and calculating to obtain a standard prediction value of the national production total value growth rate of the prediction quarter by utilizingthe standard prediction model. A large amount of complicated basic data does not need to be counted; only the newly added enterprise registration number needs to be obtained; therefore, the nationaltotal production value growth rate can be rapidly and simply predicted, the statistical difficulty can be reduced, the time delay can be reduced, the change condition of the national total productionvalue growth rate can be predicted in time, problems existing in macroeconomy can be found in time, adjustment can be conducted in time, and missing of the optimal time of intervention is avoided.

Description

technical field [0001] This application relates to the field of macroeconomics, in particular, to a method and system for forecasting gross national product based on a linear regression model. Background technique [0002] Macroeconomic indicators are a way to present the trend of economic development. The main indicators include gross national product, inflation and deflation, investment indicators, consumption, finance, fiscal indicators, etc. Macroeconomic indicators play an important role in analysis and reference for macroeconomic regulation and control. Among them, GNP refers to the sum of the value of all final goods and services produced by a country in a certain period of time (usually a year). GNP is the most important indicator to measure the scale of a country's economic operation. Gross national product is usually measured using the expenditure approach. The so-called expenditure method is to measure the gross national product by calculating the total expendi...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] (1) Statistical methods are complex. Common methods include production method, income method, and expenditure method. The three methods reflect the results of national economic production activities from different angles. These methods require a lot of basic data and complex statistical methods

[0005] (2) The time delay is large, the conventional statistical method is complex, and there are many basic data for coordination. Therefore, the delay is large, and the changes in the growth of the gross national product cannot be predicted in time, which is not conducive to making timely adjustments

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