Hourly Water Temperature Forecasting Method for Rivers

Abstract

The invention discloses an hourly water temperature forecasting method for a river. The steps are: using a compound sine function to fit the historical water temperature and air temperature data of the river, and calculating the highest and lowest water temperature and the initial value of the air temperature forecast on the day to be forecast; constructing the river water temperature change and air temperature The corresponding relationship of changes; calculate the credible interval of the maximum and minimum temperature forecast values ​​on the day to be forecast; correct the initial value of the maximum and minimum water temperature forecast on the day; use the compound cosine function to predict the probability of the hourly water temperature of the river. The invention realizes the hourly probability forecast of the water temperature of the river, improves the accuracy of the water temperature forecast, and also fills the blank of hourly water temperature data demand in areas without data.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a water temperature prediction method, in particular to an hourly water temperature prediction method for rivers based on compound sine and cosine. Background technique [0002] Mastering the dynamic changes of water temperature in rivers and canals is of great significance in the fields of river ecological environment assessment and industrial intake and drainage scheme design. On the one hand, the water quality of rivers is extremely vulnerable to the impact of human activities such as pollution or water conservancy projects. Once the natural state of river water quality is damaged, there will be many changes such as the decline of water environment quality and the loss of biodiversity. The change of water temperature is one of them. one. Water temperature is one of the important indicators of water environment factors. Changes in water temperature directly affect changes in water environment quality and are closely related ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Empirical formulas are relatively simple to use, but are not universally applicable, are severely restricted by regions, and are limited to the prediction of daily-scale water temperature (maximum, minimum or average); the mathematical model starts from the physical process of heat exchange in water bodies to establish hydrodynamic values model, but requires a large amount of measured data, and it is difficult to obtain data

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