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A method for data analysis and prediction model establishment of pm2.5 concentration

A PM2.5 and forecasting model technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as narrowing the selection range, huge rule space, and long training time, achieving strong parallelism, good generalization ability, and structural simple effect

Active Publication Date: 2020-03-17
BEIJING INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGYGY
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

However, the rule space of cellular automata is extremely large, and it is seriously necessary to rely on human experience to narrow the selection range, and its training time is usually long

Method used

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  • A method for data analysis and prediction model establishment of pm2.5 concentration
  • A method for data analysis and prediction model establishment of pm2.5 concentration
  • A method for data analysis and prediction model establishment of pm2.5 concentration

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Embodiment 1

[0049] A method for data analysis and prediction model building of PM2.5 concentration of the present invention, the specific steps are as follows:

[0050] A method for data analysis and prediction model building of PM2.5 concentration, comprising the steps of:

[0051] Step 1. Decompose the change process of PM2.5 into pollution generation, diffusion, dilution and sedimentation; divide the monitoring area of ​​PM2.5 into multiple cells, and establish a cellular automata model for each process;

[0052] Step 2, using historical data to train the parameters in each model to obtain a prediction model for PM2.5 data.

[0053]The present invention uses a cellular automata model to simulate and predict PM2.5 concentration changes. On the one hand, the model has a strong evolution ability, which can simulate a variety of complex phenomena and adapt to changes in complex systems. On the other hand, the model has strong parallelism and is easy to implement parallel computing. In s...

Embodiment 2

[0055] A method for data analysis and prediction model establishment of PM2.5 concentration. Aiming at the problem that the change of PM2.5 concentration is difficult to simulate and predict, the change process of PM2.5 is evolved through the cellular automata model, and the data analysis method is used to narrow down the PM2.5 concentration. The PM2.5 rule selection space speeds up the modeling process of the cellular automaton and realizes the purpose of predicting the PM2.5 concentration, such as figure 2 As shown, the specific process is:

[0056] Step 1, data cleaning.

[0057] Use a polynomial model to learn historical data (related to weather), obtain the number n of items of the best fitting curve, and establish a polynomial of degree n. When evaluating the historical data monitored at the i-th moment, the n-degree polynomial is trained on the data of n moments with a short interval from the i-th moment and with high quality. The data at the i-th moment of the curve ...

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Abstract

The invention provides a PM2.5 concentration data analysis and prediction model building method. The method comprises the steps of: firstly, decomposing a change process of PM 2.5 into pollution generation, diffusion, thinning and settling; dividing a PM 2.5 monitoring area into a plurality of cells and building a cellular automata model for each process; training parameters in each model by using historical data to obtain a PM 2.5 data prediction model. The cellular automata models are adopted to simulate and predict the change of the PM 2.5 concentration, so that a PM 2.5 concentration change process can be effectively and rapidly predicted.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of weather prediction, and in particular relates to a method for data analysis and prediction model establishment of PM2.5 concentration. Background technique [0002] PM2.5 refers to particulate matter in the ambient air with an aerodynamic equivalent diameter less than or equal to 2.5 microns. It can be suspended in the air for a long time, and the higher its concentration in the air, the more serious the air pollution. PM2.5 is easy to be accompanied by toxic and harmful substances, and it stays in the atmosphere for a long time and has a long transmission distance, which seriously affects human health and the quality of the atmospheric environment. Affected by human activities and meteorological conditions, the change of PM2.5 concentration is complex. How to simulate the change process of PM2.5 concentration and predict the change trend has important guiding significance for the governance of PM2.5 and...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26
CPCG16Z99/00
Inventor 邓方马丽秋陈杰高欣赵佳晨闫文茹
Owner BEIJING INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGYGY
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