Ship collision risk evaluation method and system based on data mining

Abstract

The invention discloses a ship collision risk evaluation method and system based on data mining. The method includes: according to recorded ship collision historical data, predicting causation factor occurring times through a cumulative auto-regressive moving average model, adopting a principal component analysis method to perform dimension reducing calculation on causation factors, and taking an acquired principal component as input of a first neural network to predict collision probability; adopting decision-making tree analysis to find an accident sequence with high confidence degree and occurring frequency, using a neural network model to calculate number of injured people, number of dead people and property loss, and performing standardization and normalization processing to eliminate influence of order and dimension; using an expert system and a fuzzy hierarchy analysis method to give different weights to indexes to quantify collision consequence. According to the above content, the ship collision risk evaluation system based on data mining is developed, ship collision risk is predicted quantitatively, real-time guidance is provided for ship control, collision avoiding emergency and on-site handling, and loss can be lowered effectively.

Description

technical field [0001] The present disclosure relates to the technical field of traffic management, in particular to a data mining-based ship collision risk assessment method and system. Background technique [0002] Among the many modes of transportation, waterway transportation is generally recognized and accepted for its low cost and large transportation volume. Water transportation has developed rapidly. occurred, resulting in varying degrees of property damage, casualties and environmental pollution. [0003] Because there are many factors that lead to ship collision accidents: including ship factors, environmental factors, and human factors, it is difficult to fully quantify the risk of collision due to the uncertainty of these causative factors. At present, qualitative or semi-quantitative methods are usually used to evaluate the risk of ship collision, so that corresponding ship management measures can be taken according to the evaluation results to prevent the occu...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The embodiment of the present invention provides a data mining-based ship collision risk assessment method and its system to solve the problems in the prior art that the accuracy of risk assessment is poor and the risk of ship collision cannot be reduced

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