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Ship trajectory predicting method

A technology of ship trajectory and prediction method, which is applied in the direction of ship traffic control, instrumentation, traffic control system, etc., and can solve the problems that ships do not have the function of automatic conflict resolution

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-12-07
JIANGSU UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

Although this kind of equipment greatly reduces the load of manual monitoring, it does not have the function of automatic conflict resolution of the ship

Method used

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  • Ship trajectory predicting method
  • Ship trajectory predicting method

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Embodiment 1

[0046] See figure 1 , a kind of ship trajectory prediction method of the present embodiment comprises the following steps:

[0047] ①Obtain the real-time and historical position information of the ship through the sea surface radar, and the position information of each ship is a discrete two-dimensional position sequence x'=[x 1 ',x 2 ',...,x n '] and y' = [y 1 ',y 2 ',...,y n '], by applying wavelet transform theory to the original discrete two-dimensional position sequence x'=[x 1 ',x 2 ',...,x n '] and y' = [y 1 ',y 2 ',...,y n '] for preliminary processing, so as to obtain the denoising discrete two-dimensional position sequence x=[x 1 ,x 2 ,...,x n ] and y = [y 1 ,y 2 ,...,y n ]:y=[y 1 ,y 2 ,...,y n ]: For a given original two-dimensional sequence data x'=[x 1 ',x 2 ',...,x n '], which are approximated by linear expressions of the following form:

[0048] in:

[0049] f'(x') represents the function expression obtained after smoothing the data,...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a ship trajectory predicting method. The ship trajectory predicting method comprises the following steps: firstly, the real-time and historical position information of a ship is obtained through a sea surface radar and then is primarily processed; secondly, ship trajectory data are preprocessed at each sampling time, then are clustered at each sampling time and are subjected to parameter training through a hidden Markov model at each sampling time, and then a hidden state q corresponding to the observation value at the current time is obtained by the adoption of a Viterbi algorithm according to parameters of the hidden Markov model at each sampling time; finally, by setting the prediction time domain W at each sampling time, on the basis of the hidden state q of the ship at the current time, the position prediction value O of the ship in the future is obtained. Therefore, the ship trajectory in the future can be obtained in a rolling speculation mode at each sampling time. The ship trajectory predicting method predicts the ship trajectory in real time in the rolling mode, thus being good in accuracy. Meanwhile, the method provides a powerful guarantee for subsequent ship conflict resolution.

Description

[0001] This application is the application number: 2014108415648, and the name of the invention is "A real-time prediction method for ship trajectory" Law, the filing date is: the divisional application of the invention patent application on December 30, 2014. technical field [0002] The invention relates to a sea area traffic control method, in particular to a ship track prediction method based on a rolling planning strategy. Background technique [0003] With the rapid development of the global shipping industry, the traffic in some busy sea areas is becoming more and more congested. In sea areas with dense and complex ship traffic flow, the control method of sailing plan combined with manual interval allocation for the conflict between ships can no longer adapt to the rapid development of the shipping industry. In order to ensure the safe separation between ships, the implementation of effective conflict deployment has become the focus of sea area traffic control. Sh...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08G3/00G08G3/02
CPCG08G3/00G08G3/02
Inventor 韩云祥赵景波李广军
Owner JIANGSU UNIV OF TECH
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