Power system online operation safety risk assessment method based on extreme value theory

Abstract

The invention discloses a power system online operation safety risk assessment method based on extreme value theory. The method is mainly characterized by, through limited-quantity simulation, carrying out operation safety tail risk modeling by utilizing the extreme value theory in statistics, so that possible system operation risk situations having large influence can be estimated effectively; and the method can accurately describe possible risk factors in the operation process in the model with various possible uncertain factors of new energy (wind power and photovoltaic and the like) forecast errors and load fluctuation and the like, which may appear in the system operation process, being taken into consideration. Besides, the method only depends on limited samples, so that the method has a rapid calculation effect; and the method is a practical on-line assessment method, can be applied to online safety risk assessment of a real system and provides valuable reference and guidance for safe operation of the system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power grid security risk assessment, relates to assessing the risks faced by the power grid from the perspective of power grid operation safety, and in particular to a method capable of quickly assessing system operation risks based on limited assessment data. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the access of large-scale new energy sources, its installed capacity has risen rapidly. The access to large-scale new energy has brought more uncertainties to the safe operation of the power grid. At the same time, the scale of the power grid has continued to expand, the grid structure has become more complex, and the potential risks of power grid operation have continued to increase. [0003] Online power grid operation safety risk assessment has always been a complex problem. On the one hand, accurately characterizing the random outage characteristics of a large number of components requires the face of a ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The access of large-scale new energy has brought more uncertain factors to the safe operation of the power grid. At the same time, the scale of the power grid continues to expand, the grid structure becomes more complex, and the potential risks of power grid operation continue to increase.

[0003] On-line power grid operation safety risk assessment has always been a complex problem. On the one hand, it is necessary to accurately characterize the random outage characteristics of a large number of components, which needs to face a huge disaster of dimensionality, which often results in unimaginable computational efforts.

On the other hand, new energy generally has the characteristics of low energy density, wide distribution, intermittence and strong volatility, which brings many potential dangers and challenges to the safe operation of the power grid. Operational risk assessment considering these factors can be used for backup settings. Therefore, it is necessary to study how to quickly and efficiently complete the online security risk assessment of complex systems containing large-scale new energy

[0004] At present, the online security risk assessment methods for large-scale new energy complex systems mainly include state enumeration method, Monte Carlo method, etc. Although these methods can better complete the task of risk analysis, due to the complexity and The huge scale, to accurately assess its risks, such analysis often does not meet the timeliness; on the other hand, risk assessment analysis often hopes to accurately analyze the impact of extreme events, which is a huge challenge for existing risk assessment methods. challenge

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