Typhoon intensity prediction method and system

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of typhoon intensity prediction, and specifically relates to a typhoon intensity prediction method and a system. The typhoon intensity prediction method includes: step a: statistics and analysis of historical typhoon data; step b: selecting an environmental prediction factor related to typhoon intensity change, and calculating and extracting parameter data related to the environmental prediction factor; and step c: building a multiple linear regression model, taking the parameter data related to the environmental prediction factor of the historical typhoon data into the multiple linear regression model for regression model training, obtaining a typhoon intensity prediction equation according to a training result, and calculating the typhoon intensity according to the typhoon intensity prediction equation. According to the typhoon intensity prediction method and the system, not merely basin typhoon can be predicted, all types of typhoon can be predicted, the prediction range is wider, the selection of the environmental prediction factor is more comprehensive, and the accuracy of typhoon intensity prediction is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of typhoon intensity forecasting, and in particular relates to a typhoon intensity forecasting method and system. Background technique [0002] Sudden changes in typhoon intensity are at the forefront of international typhoon research and one of the three major problems in operational typhoon forecasting. In the past 30 years, due to the application of various detection methods and the continuous development of dynamic models, the forecast of typhoon tracks has developed steadily. In contrast, research on typhoon intensity and its variation has progressed slowly, mainly due to insufficient understanding of the physical processes that control intensity variation, and the inability to determine which environmental factors have an impact on typhoon intensity. At present, there is no effective typhoon intensity forecasting model in my country. Only by establishing a dynamic statistical relationship model betwee...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] The present invention provides a method and system for forecasting typhoon intensity, aiming to solve the technical problems of the existing typhoon intensity forecasting method with single prediction range, insufficient selection of environmental prediction factors and low accuracy of typhoon intensity prediction

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