Fast calculation method for engineering sea area sea-level rise

Abstract

The invention discloses a fast calculation method for engineering sea area sea-level rise. The method comprises the technical steps that multiple kinds of sea surface height data of an engineering sea area are disposed, and a sea-level change data sequence is established; smoothing processing is conducted on the sea-level change data sequence of the engineering sea area; the rise rate of the sea-level is piecewise calculated by using the smoothed data sequence; correlation analysis is conducted on an average sea-level rise rate data sequence and a corresponding temperature data sequence; a future sea-level rise rate calculation model is established by using a correlation analysis result; the future sea-level rise rate is calculated according to time demands for engineering sea area sea-level prediction; a quantity value of the sea-level rise range and an error range thereof are calculated. By means of the method, a predicted value of the seal-level rise range and a predicted error are calculated, the calculated amount is smaller, the sea-level rise trend and the uncertainty of climate prediction under the background of climate change in the future can be objectively reflected, and the requirement for accurately and fast predicting future seal-level rise can be met.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to marine environment forecast technology, in particular to a calculation method for sea level rise in engineering sea areas. Background technique [0002] In the construction and design of coastal projects, the effect of sea level rise needs to be considered. In the context of climate warming, the sea level will continue to rise in the future, which will lead to changes in the marine dynamic environment in engineering sea areas, lower engineering design standards, and cause many adverse effects on marine engineering facilities. Some current codes in my country require that the sea level rise value during the service life of the project should be superimposed when determining the design tidal level of the project. Taking nuclear power projects as an example, the design specification clearly stipulates that the 80-year mean sea level rise must be added to the design reference flood level. [0003] With the advancement of climate ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the traditional method has the following defects: First, the method of using historical data to statistically predict the change of the average sea level is mostly empirical extrapolation, and the results are only statistically significant, and do not include the thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of polar glaciers caused by future climate change Influenced by other factors, the obtained sea level change is a linear rise, and the magnitude is low; the second is that the numerical simulation method mainly considers the effect of seawater thermal expansion, and uses a physical model of a given surface warming hypothesis to predict sea level change. The calculated sea level rise rate is generally lower than the actual observation, the ability to predict future sea level changes is very limited, the reliability of the simulation results is poor, and the numerical model has a huge amount of calculation, long running time, requires high-performance computing equipment, and is difficult to use in practice

Due to many factors, the existing methods cannot meet the demand of coastal engineering design for sea level rise prediction, which affects the efficiency and quality of calculating sea level rise, and has certain limitations

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