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Short-time prediction method and system of traffic flow data

A forecasting method and traffic flow technology, applied in the field of intelligent transportation systems, can solve the problems of inaccurate forecasted traffic flow data, failure to consider the interaction and memory of actual traffic data, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2012-07-25
BEIJING STONE INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYST INTEGRATION
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Problems solved by technology

The disadvantage of the traditional K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression prediction method is that it does not take into account the mutual influence and memory in the actual traffic data, which leads to the inaccuracy of the traditional K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression prediction method in predicting traffic flow data

Method used

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  • Short-time prediction method and system of traffic flow data
  • Short-time prediction method and system of traffic flow data

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Embodiment Construction

[0071] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for obtaining historical standard data of traffic flow, so as to provide high-precision and reliable historical standard data of traffic flow for the short-term traffic flow prediction method.

[0072] At present, the mining of a large amount of historical traffic state data is mainly used for theoretical research and decision support, and regular conclusions are not used in short-term traffic forecasting methods. The embodiments of the present invention provide a method for obtaining historical standard data of traffic flow, group a large amount of original traffic flow time series data to generate sets, and adopt different methods for each traffic flow time series data in each set according to busy periods and idle periods process, and take the obtained basic sequence data as the historical standard data of traffic flow.

[0073] Considering the different traffic patterns in different periods of the day, the ti...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an intelligent traffic system, in particular to short-time prediction method and system of traffic flow data, which are used for improving the prediction accuracy of the traffic flow data and are suitable for real-time traffic prediction. The short-time prediction method of traffic flow data, which is provided by the invention, improves the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction and acquires optimal K and l values and corresponding predicted traffic flow data by further adding a state pattern vector to a traditional K adjacent nonparametric regression prediction method and adopting search methods of variable adjacent numbers K and match numbers l.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an intelligent traffic system, in particular to a method and system for short-term prediction of traffic flow data. Background technique [0002] With the deepening of the research on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS, InteLLigent Transport Systems) and the wide application of ITS technology, traffic management is gradually becoming intelligent, dynamic and informatized. Traffic managers and researchers can obtain real-time traffic status data and accumulate a large amount of historical data on this basis. This dynamic information provides important data support for traffic managers and traffic researchers. However, whether it is to achieve the most effective management of urban traffic or to provide more meaningful traffic information for road users, it is objectively required to know the evolution trend of traffic conditions in a short period of time in the future on the basis of real-time traffic information. Without...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08G1/01
Inventor 关积珍商朋见刘静于建玲王贞君张苏南李军
Owner BEIJING STONE INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYST INTEGRATION
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