Space debris environment efficient evolution prediction and influence factor analysis method

Abstract

The invention discloses a space debris environment efficient evolution prediction method, and belongs to the field of space target environments. According to the method, the space debris environment is simplified, the space debris environment is regarded as an unsteady compressible fluid environment, debris density is taken as a variable, and an overall space debris evolution model is established through a continuity equation in fluid mechanics; a Gaussian mixture model is used for fitting to obtain probability distribution of historical launching activities, a random sampling method is used for obtaining orbit radius distribution of the launching activities, and an overall space debris evolution model considering the influence of launching orbit radius uncertainty on the launching activities is obtained; and the evolution model is solved by adopting a finite difference method to realize evolution prediction of the space debris environment. According to the method for analyzing the effect of the influence factors on the space debris environment evolution, by considering different influence factors and comparing and analyzing evolution prediction results, the effect of the three factors including atmospheric drag perturbation, launching activity and collision disintegration on the space debris environment evolution is obtained.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a long-term evolution prediction method of space debris environment and an analysis method of space debris influencing factors, which belong to the field of space object environment. Background technique [0002] With the increasing frequency of human spaceflight activities and the planning and deployment of large constellations, the number of space debris is gradually increasing, which poses a huge threat to the current orbiting spacecraft and future launch activities, and is not conducive to the sustainable development of the space environment. In order to assess the stability of the space environment, establish a model to describe the evolution of the environment, analyze and predict the long-term evolution of the space environment, is a commonly used theoretical research method, and is also the technical basis for space traffic management and space debris governance. [0003] At present, most of the research and analysis on...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In order to solve the problem of high computational resource consumption of existing evolution models that take the motion state of a single debris as a variable, one of the purposes of the present invention is to provide a method for efficient evolution prediction of the space debris environment, which simplifies the space debris environment, Using the macroscopic state of debris as a variable, the overall space debris evolution model is established based on the continuity equation in fluid mechanics, and the evolution prediction efficiency is improved by establishing the overall space debris evolution model compared with the evolution model that takes the movement state of individual debris as a variable

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