Load prediction method based on intelligent algorithm

Abstract

The invention discloses a load prediction method based on an intelligent algorithm, and the method comprises the steps: firstly building a volume Kalman filtering model based on noise estimation optimization of a fading memory exponential weighting method for the extracted load data for the extracted load data, and carrying out the prediction of a load value; obtaining a load prediction result and a prediction error sequence, carrying out outlier processing on prediction error data, and predicting the prediction error data by adopting a GM-BP model so as to correct a prediction result of the volume Kalman filtering model based on noise estimation optimization of a fading memory exponential weighting method, and obtaining a final load prediction result. The problem that a traditional load prediction model is insufficient in timeliness and accuracy is solved, the power grid load prediction capacity can be improved, and an important guarantee is provided for safe and economical operation of a power system and scientific management and dispatching of a power grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of electric power, and specifically relates to a load forecasting method based on an intelligent algorithm. Background technique [0002] Power load forecasting is one of the important tasks of the power system. The accuracy of forecasting will have a great impact on economic dispatch, real-time control, operation planning and development planning. With the further opening of the electricity market, the more mature market mechanism, and the more comprehensive market opening, electricity load forecasting will play a greater role. Traditional load forecasting methods such as regression forecasting and time series methods can no longer meet the current needs in terms of real-time and accuracy, especially under the influence of multiple factors. Contents of the invention [0003] In order to solve the shortcomings of the above-mentioned existing technologies, the present invention proposes a load forecasting ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In order to solve the shortcomings of the above-mentioned existing technologies, the present invention proposes a load forecasting method based on an intelligent algorithm, in order to improve the timeliness and accuracy of the traditional load forecasting model, thereby improving the ability of power grid load forecasting , providing an important guarantee for the safe and economical operation of the power system and the realization of scientific management and scheduling of the power grid

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