Conflict detection method based on multi-ship motion uncertainty, memory and processor

Abstract

The invention discloses a conflict detection method based on multi-ship motion uncertainty, a memory and a processor, which are used for predicting potential collision risks under various multi-ship meeting situations by quantifying track uncertainty distribution in AIS data and considering a space-time correlation mode of ship motion. A two-stage Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is employed to ensure the precision and efficiency of estimation, which provides a quantitative boundary of approximate precision and allows for fast estimation of conflict probability. A plurality of actual tests are carried out by using the AIS trajectory data of the Ningbo Zhoushan harbor, and the feasibility and superiority of the method are verified. The result shows that the method can timely and reliably detect the collision risk in a complex dynamic environment. Therefore, valuable insights are provided for ship collision risk prediction and risk mitigation measure formulation.

Description

Technical field [0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of transportation, and specifically, a conflict detection method, a memory, and processor based on multi-boat-based uncertainty. Background technique [0002] Maritime transport plays an important role in global economic development. However, in the past few decades, the growing shipments have led to higher maritime transportation density or complexity, especially in the waters near the port. It makes ships collide with one of the most common types of sea accidents. For example, the Singapore Strait, Ningbo Zhoushan Port, Baltic Sea and other sea areas, there is a large amount of traffic, and the traffic conditions are extremely complex, and the ship movement behavior is variable. This leads to increasingly paying attention to the discomfort of traditional risk methods on maritime traffic risks, and challenges new ship collision risk perception models. [0003] In response to these problems, people have d...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

This patent application only dynamically updates the ship collision risk results in real time, without considering the uncertainty of ship motion; its focus is on providing a visual effect of real-time risk distribution, and does not consider the collision risk of individual ships in a multi-ship situation from the perspective of probability

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