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Photovoltaic power prediction method and system based on haze/dust coverage range

A power forecasting and coverage technology, applied in the field of photovoltaic power forecasting, can solve problems such as inaccurate photovoltaic power forecasting results, and achieve the effect of accurate photovoltaic power forecasting

Pending Publication Date: 2021-01-05
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +2
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

[0006] In order to overcome the problem of inaccurate photovoltaic power prediction results caused by the influence of haze and dust on radiation, the present invention proposes a photovoltaic power prediction method based on haze / sand dust coverage, which mainly divides the prediction area into grids. Then calculate the haze / sand dust concentration in each grid in the prediction area based on the weather element forecast and the actual concentration of haze / sand dust, calculate the coverage area of ​​haze / sand dust, and finally calculate the grid area covered by haze / sand dust , real-time correction of the photovoltaic power prediction model, which helps to improve the accuracy of photovoltaic power prediction

Method used

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  • Photovoltaic power prediction method and system based on haze/dust coverage range
  • Photovoltaic power prediction method and system based on haze/dust coverage range

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Embodiment 1

[0060] The method for predicting photovoltaic power generation power based on haze / sand dust coverage provided by the embodiment of the present invention, its specific implementation process is as follows figure 1 shown, including:

[0061] S101: Obtain current / approaching weather forecast element data, and perform grid processing according to a pre-designed grid;

[0062] S102: Correcting the gridded current / imminent weather forecast element data;

[0063] S103: Bring the corrected gridded weather forecast element data into the pre-built prediction model to obtain the haze / dust concentration of each grid and the coverage of the haze / sand dust on the grid;

[0064] S104: Bring the haze / sand dust concentration of each grid and the coverage of the haze / sand dust on the grid into the predetermined correlation between haze / sand dust and photovoltaic power to obtain Predicted values ​​of PV power within the affected grid.

[0065] Specifically, in step S101, the weather forecast...

Embodiment 2

[0081] A photovoltaic power prediction system based on haze / sand dust coverage, its structure diagram is as follows image 3 shown, including:

[0082] The data processing module is used to obtain the current / near moment weather forecast element data, perform grid processing according to the pre-designed grid, and correct the gridded current / near time weather forecast element data;

[0083] The haze / dust prediction module is used to bring the revised gridded weather forecast element data into the pre-built prediction model to obtain the haze / dust concentration of each grid and the haze / dust on the grid grid coverage;

[0084] The photovoltaic power prediction module is used to bring the haze / dust concentration of each grid and the coverage of the haze / dust on the grid into the predetermined correlation between haze / dust and photovoltaic power , to obtain the predicted value of photovoltaic power in the affected grid.

[0085] Among them, the pre-designed grid includes: prec...

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Abstract

The invention provides a photovoltaic power prediction method based on a haze / dust coverage range. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring meteorological forecast element data at the current / near moment, performing gridding processing and performing correction; substituting the corrected gridding weather forecast element data into a pre-constructed prediction model to obtain the haze / sand dust concentration and the coverage range of each grid; and substituting the haze / sand dust concentration and the coverage range of each grid into a predetermined correlation between haze / sand dust and photovoltaic power to obtain a photovoltaic power prediction value in the affected grid. According to the technical scheme provided by the invention, correlation analysis is carried out on meteorological forecasting elements and haze / sand dust concentration values by utilizing a statistical method, and a forecasting model is established, so that more accurate photovoltaic power forecasting of an area where the photovoltaic power station is located is achieved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic power prediction technology, in particular to a photovoltaic power prediction method and system based on haze / sand dust coverage. Background technique [0002] In recent years, large-scale smog / sand and dust and other severe weather have occurred continuously, especially in the northern region, where the early time, high frequency, wide range, and intensity of sand and dust / smog weather are rare in the same period of history. Electricity, transportation, the environment and people's daily life and work have brought adverse effects. Due to the randomness and volatility of the output power of photovoltaic power generation, the connection of large-scale photovoltaic power plants to the grid in recent years has affected the security, stability and economic operation of the grid. Accurate prediction of the output power of photovoltaic power plants will help the power dispatching department to adj...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N3/04G06N3/08
CPCG06N3/04G06N3/08G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 陈卫东程序周海丁煌李登宣
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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