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COVID-19 real-time risk prediction method

A technology for COVID-19 and risk prediction, applied in the field of real-time risk prediction of COVID-19

Pending Publication Date: 2020-10-13
CHINA UNIV OF GEOSCIENCES (WUHAN)
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In view of this, the present invention proposes a COVID-19 real-time risk prediction method to solve the problem of how to improve the accuracy of risk prediction and realize the risk classification prediction in different regions

Method used

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Embodiment Construction

[0042] In order to have a clearer understanding of the technical features, purposes and effects of the present invention, the specific implementation of the present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0043] refer to figure 1 As shown, it is a flow chart of a COVID-19 real-time risk prediction method of the present invention. In this embodiment, 8 countries in Europe have carried out epidemic risk prediction. The specific steps are as follows:

[0044] S1. Obtain the basic case data of the epidemic;

[0045] In this example, the basic case data of the epidemic include the basic situation of the region (regional population, regional area) and the case statistics (cumulative confirmed cases, cumulative death cases, cumulative cured cases) from the outbreak time of 8 European countries to April 16, 2020 ), the basic case data of this method come from Tencent, Dingxiangyuan and WHO.

[0046] S2. Based on the basic case data of...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a COVID-19 real-time risk prediction method, which comprises the following steps of: acquiring epidemic risk evaluation data and social vulnerability evaluation data; establishing an infection number attenuation equation and an epidemic situation propagation dynamics model; predicting epidemic risk evaluation data according to an infection number attenuation equation and anepidemic propagation dynamics model; establishing an entropy-analytic hierarchy process combined model; carrying out epidemic risk prediction according to the entropy-analytical hierarchy combined model, the epidemic risk evaluation data and the social vulnerability evaluation data; and drawing an epidemic risk prediction grade map. The method provides support for later epidemic prevention and control decisions, and can be used for emergency prediction of risks in new epidemic situation occurrence periods or other sudden public safety events in the future.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of data analysis, in particular to a method for real-time risk prediction of COVID-19. Background technique [0002] Academically, the risk prediction of COVID-19 is mainly risk probability analysis, through the analysis of pathogens and infectious sources, the input of potential infectious sources, transmission routes, transmission potential, etc., to obtain the risk of outbreaks in specific locations and environments. These methods mainly consider the characteristics of the number of cases of epidemic transmission and infection. The risk assessment index set is not complete, and there is no coupling of economic, population, policy and medical measures. The accuracy of risk prediction needs to be improved; the risk prediction method does not combine the dynamic mechanism of epidemic transmission , there are certain defects in the long-term prediction, which limits the accuracy and rationality of reg...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80G06Q10/04G06Q10/06
CPCG16H50/80G06Q10/04G06Q10/0635
Inventor 胡跃译王贤敏罗孟晗张俊华毕佳胡凤昌
Owner CHINA UNIV OF GEOSCIENCES (WUHAN)
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