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Fitting method and system for time distribution characteristics of meteorological disaster faults of power transmission line

A technology for transmission lines and meteorological disasters, which is applied in the field of time distribution characteristics fitting, can solve problems such as difficult peak-valley cycles, poor fitting effect of multi-peak periodic curves, complex time distribution characteristics of transmission lines, etc. The effect of a trip accident

Pending Publication Date: 2020-05-22
STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER +2
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The present invention provides a fitting method and system for the time distribution characteristics of meteorological disaster faults of transmission lines, which are used to solve the problem that due to the complex time distribution characteristics of the failure rate of transmission lines, it is difficult to adapt to peaks and valleys only by adjusting the period coefficient of the fitting model Period, and the technical problem that the traditional Fourier function and Gaussian function do not fit the multi-peak periodic curve well

Method used

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  • Fitting method and system for time distribution characteristics of meteorological disaster faults of power transmission line
  • Fitting method and system for time distribution characteristics of meteorological disaster faults of power transmission line
  • Fitting method and system for time distribution characteristics of meteorological disaster faults of power transmission line

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Embodiment 1

[0045] See figure 1 , The fitting method of the time distribution feature of the meteorological disaster fault of the transmission line of this embodiment. include:

[0046] S1: Obtain the frequency distribution of the failure rate sequence of meteorological disasters. That is, the monthly distribution of the number of transmission line trips in a certain area in the historical period is the object, and the frequency distribution of the meteorological disaster failure rate of the transmission line in different months is calculated.

[0047] Obtain the frequency distribution of the meteorological disaster failure rate sequence: Divide the meteorological disaster failure rate sequence of the transmission line in the area into 12 intervals on a monthly basis, and count the numbers falling in each month to obtain the line trip time sequence ΔP in the kth month k The frequency distribution of the transmission line, the frequency distribution function f(x) of the meteorological disaster ...

Embodiment 2

[0082] This embodiment is an application of Embodiment 1. This embodiment takes the 220kV and above transmission line fault events related to the meteorological environment in Hunan Power Grid during the seven years from 2010 to 2017 as a sample, and uses the fitting method of the time distribution characteristics of the transmission line meteorological disaster fault of embodiment 1 to perform the function expression The failure rate is assumed to be month-to-month time distribution, and then function parameter fitting is performed.

Embodiment 3

[0088] This embodiment provides a computer system, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and capable of running on the processor, and the processor implements the steps of any of the foregoing embodiments when the processor executes the computer program.

[0089] To sum up, in order to facilitate the analysis of the failure rate of the meteorological disasters of the transmission line, the present invention starts from the periodic characteristics of the impact of weather on the power grid, and calculates the failure rate of the transmission line based on the failure events of the same month in the past years, and obtains the failure rate samples of each month. Based on the introduction of the cloud model feature fitting analysis method, the frequency distribution of the monthly failure rate sequence of the transmission line is decomposed into several cloud models with normal distribution, so as to realize the conversion from quantitative expr...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a fitting method and system for time distribution characteristics of meteorological disaster faults of a power transmission line, and the method comprises the steps: taking themonthly distribution of tripping times of the power transmission line in a certain region of a historical same period as an object, and respectively carrying out the statistics of the frequency distribution of the meteorological disaster faults of the power transmission line in different months; carrying out cloud transformation fitting on the frequency distribution of the meteorological disasterfailure rate of the power transmission line in different months to obtain a plurality of corresponding normal cloud models; through a plurality of normal cloud models, respectively calculating an expected value, an entropy value and an amplitude coefficient of a comprehensive cloud concept by adopting a jumping method of the cloud models, and fitting fault rate distribution of the meteorologicaldisasters of the power transmission line. According to the method, a failure rate distribution function in the annual longitudinal time direction can be established, a time-dependent failure rate mathematical model is obtained and used for reflecting power transmission line failure time distribution rules in different regions, different voltage classes and different meteorological environments, and panoramic analysis of power grid disasters and meteorological disasters is achieved.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of transmission line protection, in particular to a method and system for fitting the time distribution characteristics of meteorological disaster faults of transmission lines based on a cloud model. Background technique [0002] The transmission line network is spread all over China, featuring many points, long lines and wide coverage. At present, most of the power transmission equipment is located in the wilderness, the topography of the area is very different, the weather changes frequently, and the natural disasters are serious. Extreme weather disasters such as strong winds, ice disasters, and heavy rains will cause multiple transmission line failures in a short period of time. Coupled with the incorrect operation of the relay protection devices induced by the power flow transfer of the grid, it will accelerate the chain tripping of the lines and even cause large-scale power outages. Therefore, accurate und...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/0639G06Q50/06
Inventor 章国勇李波罗晶周秀冬何立夫
Owner STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER
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