Method for evaluating influence of flood on social economy based on coupling model integrated simulation

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for evaluating influence of flood on social economy. On the basis of a land surface hydrological model, a global climate mode-land surface hydrological model couplingmodel is established by carrying out numerical experiments of flood process simulation under different production and confluence mechanisms and evaporation mechanisms on the basis of climate conditions simulated under different future temperature rise scenes estimated by a global climate mode, and the global flood process is simulated. According to the method, the space-time resolution of global flood process simulation is improved; possibility is provided for refined evaluation and management of global flood risks; moreover, the method fully considers the social and economic development conditions of different regions under different social and economic development paths while considering different production and confluence mechanisms and evaporation mechanisms in the flood simulation process, and the influence of the flood risk evaluated according to the social and economic development conditions on the social and economic in different regions and different time periods is more scientific and reasonable.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of atmospheric science and technology, in particular to a method for assessing the impact of floods on society and economy based on integrated simulation of coupled models. Background technique [0002] Flood disasters have the characteristics of wide range of influence, strong suddenness, long history, frequent occurrence, great harm and strong seasonality. With the significant improvement of the comprehensive defense capability of flood disasters, the number of deaths from flood disasters in China has shown a significant downward trend. However, with the increase of population and the development of social economy, the economic carrying capacity per unit area and the exposure of infrastructure and material wealth continue to increase, resulting in high economic losses caused by rainstorm and flood disasters. [0003] Flood disaster risk assessment is a hot research issue at present, especially in the context of glo...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The output of global climate models is of low resolution and does not account for confluence mechanisms

A single land surface hydrological model cannot effectively assess different flow generation and confluence mechanisms and the uncertainty of simulation results

In addition, previous studies mainly focused on changes in the flood itself in flood risk assessment, ignoring the impact of social and economic development.

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