Method for quantifying trade resistance based on maximum expectation algorithm and multilateral probability model

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for quantifying trade resistance based on a maximum expectation algorithm and a multilateral probability model. The relationship between countries is revealed from trade flow data. On the basis, the probability that a country has a close trade distance partner in the world is calculated according to an expectation maximization algorithm and serves as a trade friendliness index of the country. According to the method, a large amount of high-dimensional national economic body quantity and bilateral trade stream data can be compressed and projected, and finally anindex capable of measuring the trade opening degree of different countries in the world or in a certain economic body range is given. The biggest innovation of the method lies in that the trade-friendly index is systematically defined and calculated, and the index has important practical significance for researching the international situation and trade relationship. In addition, the method provided by the invention has a wide application prospect in quantitative analysis and policy suggestions of stream data such as immigration, scientific citation and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention belongs to socioeconomic research and data analysis, and aims to realize the quantification of trade resistance and migration resistance existing in international and domestic trade and population migration, refer to it to better display the reality, and assist in the formulation of relevant policies. The present invention technically involves combining expectation-maximization algorithms with multilateral probability models. Background technique [0002] As the process of globalization gradually deepens, the scale of international trade and population migration is also increasing. Whether it is domestic trade or international trade, in theory, this kind of circulation can bring benefits to economic entities, such as the circulation of resources, the creation of labor jobs, and the promotion of economic growth. But in reality, the role of international trade is controversial. Some scholars believe that international trade has he...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

This kind of finding and adding independent variables is a common method of existing models, which can indeed improve the explanatory ability of the model when analyzing local problems, but there are some unavoidable shortcomings, and it is impossible to conduct a global analysis of world trade relations

For example, the selection of these independent variables is subjective, and it is difficult to achieve consensus among different scholars; and it is impossible to predict how many factors affect bilateral trade volume, which is difficult to exhaustively

Therefore, the lack of consistency and scientific validity of subjective selection variables is also the limitation of the field of recent trade research, and the current method reduces the credibility and scientific validity of empirical research.

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