Monte Carlo method-based cargo package drop angle analysis method and system

Abstract

The invention discloses a Monte Carlo method-based cargo packet drop angle analysis method and system. The method comprises the following steps of: step 101, recording random sampling times; 102, generating a random number; 103, performing sampling to obtain each random variable; 104, based on each random variable obtained by sampling at this time, carrying out simulation analysis on a collision accident scene at this time, and determining a cargo packet drop angle simulated at this time as a sampling result at this time; step 105, performing statistical analysis on the sampling result of the current time; and 106, carrying out credibility evaluation on the statistical analysis result, if the evaluation result is credible, ending the evaluation, if the evaluation result is not credible, adding 1 to the sampling times, and returning to the step 102, and continuing to repeatedly sample. According to the method and the system provided by the invention, the cargo packet drop angle in a single collision accident scene is analyzed through a Monte Carlo method, a credible confidence interval is given according to the drop angle, and the result credibility of subsequent accident analysis and radiation risk evaluation is ensured.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of radiation protection, in particular to a method and system for analyzing the falling angle of a package based on a Monte Carlo method. Background technique [0002] In the analysis of a radioactive material transportation accident scenario, an important consideration is that after an impact accident, the package may fall to the ground or the surface of other objects. The drop angle is an important factor affecting the analysis of the fall scenario. In traditional analysis methods, it is only assumed that the angle obeys a certain random probability distribution, and the common ones are uniform distribution and triangular distribution. [0003] The limitation of the existing method is that it can only assume that the package drop angle obeys a certain certain distribution. This assumption itself lacks sufficient evidence. The drop angle is an important input parameter for the subsequent impact dynamic analysis. This parame...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The limitation of the existing method is that it can only assume that the drop angle of the package obeys a specific distribution. This assumption itself lacks sufficient evidence. The drop angle is an important input parameter for the subsequent impact dynamics analysis. The unreasonable assumption of this parameter, The reliability of the subsequent analysis is greatly reduced, and the reliability of the results of the relevant radiation risk assessment is greatly reduced.

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