Multi-factor fused MOS storm surge process disaster simulation method

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of ocean disaster prediction, in particular to a multi-factor fused MOS storm surge process disaster simulation method, which comprises the following steps of (1) carrying out statistical analysis on a tropical cyclonic storm surge disaster historical process, analyzing the characteristic factors of an MOS storm surge model, and establishing the MOS storm surge model; and (2) determining a characteristic factor matrix, taking the characteristic factor matrix as an input, and learning and training by using a support vector machine to realize the tropical cyclone storm surge water increase simulation. According to the method, the error between the simple numerical forecasting and the tide level station actual measurement value can be optimized, and a new process simulation idea is provided for the later refined storm surge forecasting service.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of marine disaster prediction, in particular to a multi-factor MOS storm surge process disaster simulation method. Background technique [0002] Storm surge is one of the main marine disasters, and storm surge disaster is the most destructive type of marine disasters, causing great damage to the national economy and the safety of life and property. With the rapid development of my country's coastal economy, the construction of coastal cities and the rapid expansion of infrastructure, the disaster losses caused by storm surges are increasing day by day, often causing tens or even tens of billions of losses to the coastal area economy. The latest research shows that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones tend to increase under the background of global warming. It can be predicted that with the increase of the influence of tropical cyclones, the loss of life and property caused b...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] Initially, the relationship between storm surge surge and typhoon center pressure and wind speed was analyzed through historical observation data, and preliminary results were obtained by using empirical statistical methods to forecast storm surge surge. Most of these storm surge forecast methods are based on the analysis of historical The empirical forecast of the data, and the empirical forecast is often aimed at a specific area, and the deviation of the forecast result value is not satisfactory

Images