Regional debris flow early-stage effective precipitation measuring and calculating method

Abstract

The invention discloses a regional debris flow early-stage effective precipitation measuring and calculating method in order to overcome the defect that the prior art is difficult to be well matched with the actual distribution condition of actual condition early-stage precipitation with a long time period. According to the method, historical rainfall data observed by a debris flow forecasting area and rainfall stations around the debris flow forecasting area are utilized, main underlying surface factors influencing rainfall space-time distribution of the area and actual condition data of early-stage rainfall of each station in a required time period are combined, and a more accurate early-stage effective rainfall determination method in debris flow forecasting is established. According tothe method, a rainfall interpolation method idea based on general statistics in the prior art is broken through, and a new concept of comprehensively considering the influence of two major factors, namely historical rainfall factors of the forecast area and main underlying surface factors influencing rainfall space-time distribution of the forecast area on early-stage effective rainfall is established. The method is more scientific in principle and more in line with the debris flow formation mechanism, thereby having more accurate measurement and calculation results. The invention also provides a debris flow forecasting method with higher accuracy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the measurement and calculation of effective precipitation in the early stage of regional debris flow, and belongs to the fields of geomorphological surveying and mapping survey technology and geological disaster prevention and control. Background technique [0002] Precipitation is the most dynamic factor among the three basic conditions (matter, energy, and precipitation conditions) for the formation of debris flows, and it determines and affects the spatial and temporal distribution of debris flows to a certain extent. The precipitation in the formation of debris flow can be divided into previous precipitation and current precipitation according to the occurrence time. Among them, the early precipitation is the precipitation that has occurred until the day before the formation of the debris flow. Existing studies have confirmed that among the various precipitation indicators, the early precipitation that really plays a role ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The existing method uses the interpolation method of the general statistical model to determine the effective precipitation in the early stage of the debris flow forecast unit, without considering the influence of underlying surface factors on the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in mountainous areas, and only uses the method of dealing with weather events greatly affected by sporadic factors It is difficult to match the actual distribution of precipitation in the previous period with a long period of time

This method is also limited by the relatively small density of rainfall observation stations in the debris flow basin, making it more difficult to provide accurate and reliable early precipitation support for debris flow forecasting

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