A rolling optimal dispatching method based on wind power output prediction error

Abstract

The invention discloses a rolling optimal dispatching method based on wind power output prediction error, which comprises the following steps: determining the output power plan value of a corresponding unit through optimization and the size of wind power reserve capacity; The uncertainty of wind power forecasting error is modeled and analyzed from two angles of time and power. The wind power prediction error probability density function of different power under different time section is obtained. Formulate the strategy of positive and negative rotation reserve within the day, underestimate thecost, and join the rolling scheduling layer within the day; To positive, negative rotation reserve high, underestimating the cost; The minimum cost of rolling adjustment is the objective function ofthe intra-day scheduling layer, which satisfies the constraints of climbing rate and rotating reserve capacity of each time section of the unit, and the results of the day-ahead planning layer are optimized. The risk caused by prediction errors is effectively controlled, and under the constraint of line capacity, rolling optimization of unit output and reserve capacity is achieved, so as to to achieve the optimal scheduling of economy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of wind power, in particular to a rolling optimization scheduling method based on wind power output prediction error. Background technique [0002] With the increasing proportion of new energy connected to the grid, its advantages of environmental protection and disadvantages of uncertainty have brought new problems to the optimal economic dispatch of the power system, and put forward more questions on how to achieve economical, environmentally friendly and reliable dispatch operation. high demands. At present, the prediction technology of wind power output is far from enough to achieve the prediction error accuracy required by dispatching. Therefore, choosing an appropriate modeling method to accurately describe this uncertainty is the basis for the current study of power system dispatching with wind power. and hotspots. Sun Jian, Liu Bin, Liu Feng, et al. Modeling and Evaluation of Wind Power Output Uncertainty En...

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Problems solved by technology

Zhang Zhaosui, Sun Yuanzhang, Li Guojie, et al. Solving method for economic dispatching problem considering wind power uncertainty[J]. Electric Power System Automation, 2011, 35(22): 125-130 Aiming at line safety constraints, considering wind farm output deviation , constructing a power system conditional risk dispatch model, but this literature only balances the wind power deviation by adjusting the output of the generator set at the balance node, and the units participating in the real-time adjustment are not only located at the balance node in the actual process, so it is necessary to combine the number of units participating in the real-time adjustment and the research on its regulation

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