A Static Security Probability Evaluation Method for New Energy Grid-connected Power System

Abstract

The invention provides a static safety probability assessment method of a new energy grid power system. A new energy force output model adopting wind speed, sunlight intensity and other meteorologicalelement time period features comprehensively reflects weather random fluctuation features and time change rules, the nondeterminacy of system operation is reflected through a probabilistic load flowmethod based on Monte Carlo simulation, and the new energy force output model and the probabilistic load flow method are combined to set up the static safety probability assessment method of the new energy grid power system. A system load flow out-of-limit probability index is put forward to analyze the weak link and high-risk time frame of the system. A system N-1 risk assessment index is put forward to assess the system N-1 risk level and the risk change condition caused by new energy access scene changes. Compared with traditional and deterministic system static safety analysis, the nondeterminacy of the new energy grid power system is considered, the probability of static safety is assessed through the probability assessment method and an index assessment system, more comprehensive information is provided for system operation, and reference is provided for medium-term and long-term planning, scheduling and the like of the power system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a static safety risk assessment method of a new energy grid-connected power system. Background technique [0002] The static safety analysis of the power system is to analyze the steady-state behavior after the system failure, use the expected accident to simulate the system failure state, and study the safety problems and corresponding correction control in the stable operation state of the system after the accident. Static security analysis can make the system operators understand the security level of the system in advance, and it is an important means in system security analysis. [0003] For traditional power systems that do not contain new energy sources, a large number of literatures have studied static security from different perspectives. From the perspective of algorithms, some literatures apply new algorithms such as support vector machine classifier, multi-way decision tree and fuzzy clustering to the static securi...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] Aiming at the deficiencies of the above-mentioned prior art, the present invention provides a static security probability assessment method for a new energy grid-connected power system, which solves the technical problem in the prior art that the static security of the new energy grid-connected power system cannot be assessed for risk probability, It can take into account the uncertainty of the new energy grid-connected power system, and use probability evaluation methods and indicators to evaluate the possibility of static security of the system, which can provide more comprehensive information for system operators and provide guidance for medium and long-term planning and scheduling of power systems. for reference

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