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China future population prediction method

A technology of population and forecasting method, which is applied in forecasting, data processing application, calculation, etc., and can solve problems such as error and large population forecasting

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-10-27
程在舒
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] Compared with the population data in the annual bulletin of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the above-mentioned population forecast has a large error, and the total population error in the next ten years will be more than 10 million

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Embodiment Construction

[0038] It should be noted that, in the case of no conflict, the embodiments in the present application and the features in the embodiments can be combined with each other. The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments.

[0039] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting China's future population, which uses the corrected basic population data, the created mortality model, assumed total fertility rate data, international population net migration data and Leslie matrix to predict China's future population In the following, the technical solutions provided by the present invention will be described in detail in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments. Please refer to Figure 1 to Figure 20 , the Chinese future population prediction method of the embodiment of the present invention mainly comprises: basic population data correction module S1, mortality model est...

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Abstract

The embodiment of the present invention discloses a method for predicting China's future population. The method includes: population mortality model, basic data correction module, total fertility rate module, international population net migration module, calculation module, error analysis module, comprehensive two Child policy or not comparison module. The method of the present invention has fast execution speed, predicts the future population and age structure of China by the Leslie matrix, and compares the number of deaths calculated with the website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. In 2001-2015, the maximum error is 3.31%, and the average error is 1.81%, which is lower than The 7.23 percent and 3.8 percent published on the U.S. Census Bureau website.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the fields of social population and family planning, in particular to a method for predicting the future population of China. Background technique [0002] China is the most populous country in the world. In 2015, the total population accounted for 19.6% of the world's population. The fertility rate will significantly affect the future population. Therefore, accurate population forecasting is needed. The assumption of the total fertility rate with too large deviation is not conducive to China's future strategy planning. [0003] However, accurate prediction of China's future population faces many challenges. Reform and opening up have brought about various changes, rapid economic development, and increased urbanization rate have led to frequent population movements. At the end of the year, it reached 245 million people. On November 11, 2015, the "China Floating Population Development Report 2015" released by the Health and Fam...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q10/04
Inventor 程在舒
Owner 程在舒
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