Dangerous chemical domino accident emergency material demand quantity prediction method

A technology for domino accidents and hazardous chemicals, used in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., to achieve reliable decision-making basis and reduce resource waste.

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-09-28
SOUTH CHINA UNIV OF TECH
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

Existing studies mostly focus on a single accident scenario, but little is involved in the estimation of emergency resource demand in a potential domino effect accident scenario

Method used

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  • Dangerous chemical domino accident emergency material demand quantity prediction method
  • Dangerous chemical domino accident emergency material demand quantity prediction method
  • Dangerous chemical domino accident emergency material demand quantity prediction method

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Embodiment Construction

[0021] The implementation of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. It should be pointed out that, if there are no specific details in the following, those skilled in the art can refer to the prior art.

[0022] At 13:10 noon on May 28, 2012, a 3000m 3 A fire broke out in the styrene storage tank (1#). There are two 3000m 3 Styrene storage tanks (2#, 3#), and there is a 50m 3 Horizontal diesel storage tank (4#) and two 80m 3 Horizontal xylene storage tanks (5#, 6#) have a huge risk of domino effect accidents. The layout of the accident scene is as follows: figure 2 shown. After the accident, the relevant units urgently deployed a total of 78 fire trucks, 518 fire officers and soldiers, and 170 tons of fire-fighting foam liquid in Huizhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Foshan and other places for rescue. The accident was finally brought under control around 15:00 that afternoon.

[0023] Such as figure 1 As ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a dangerous chemical domino accident emergency material demand quantity prediction method, and belongs to the technical field of resource scheduling. The prediction method disclosed by the invention comprises the steps of determining a potential domino accident chain, calculating the accident occurrence probability of each device in a domino accident scenario, establishing a generality and individuality based emergency resource classification method and a corresponding demand quantity estimation model, and estimating the demand quantity of fire-fighting emergency resources in a typical domino accident case by using the provided estimation model. A method of combining theories and living examples is adopted in the invention. It is indicated by case analysis that the actual dispatching quantity is obviously higher compared with theoretical demand quantity. The emergency decision-makers are easy to blindly judge the emergency resource demand quantity in the domino effect accident scenario. The emergency resource demand quantity estimation method disclosed by the invention can provide more precise emergency decision-making support for an emergency response department.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of resource dispatching, in particular to a method for forecasting the demand for emergency materials in a domino accident of dangerous chemicals. Background technique [0002] The essence of emergency response is the full possession, reasonable allocation and rapid deployment of emergency resources. Whether the emergency resource demand can be accurately estimated will directly affect the scientificity and effectiveness of emergency decision-making plans and the smoothness of emergency rescue work. carry out. Hazardous chemical accidents are very likely to have a chain expansion effect to form domino accidents due to their own connotation and expansion characteristics, and the potential accident domino effect has a huge impact on the estimation of emergency resource demand. With the agglomeration of the chemical industry becoming the norm, the number of hazards per unit area of ​​land is increasing, and th...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26
Inventor 陈国华陈培珠安霆
Owner SOUTH CHINA UNIV OF TECH
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