Risk index-containing transformer full-life cycle cost probability assessment method

Abstract

The invention discloses a risk index-containing transformer full-life cycle cost probability assessment method. The method comprises the steps of determining triangular distribution parameters of random variables required for simulation, and determining a maximum simulation frequency N at the same time; calculating probabilities of the triangular distribution parameters by utilizing a triangular distribution function to obtain the random variables of the triangular distribution parameters; constructing a transformer full-life cycle cost probability assessment model by utilizing the random variables of the triangular distribution parameters; calculating the transformer full-life cycle cost probability assessment model by utilizing a Monte-Carlo simulation method, stopping a Monte-Carlo simulation process when a standard deviation (R<0.1) or a simulation frequency reaches the maximum frequency N, and recording full-life cycle cost calculation results obtained by simulations in the process; analyzing the full-life cycle cost calculation results to obtain a transformer full-life cycle cost probability distribution result; and the like. According to the method, an assessment result can provide an effective decision-making basis for transformer model selection and assets management.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power equipment performance evaluation, and in particular relates to a method for evaluating the probability of cost in the whole life cycle of a transformer including risk indicators. Background technique [0002] The safe operation of power transformers is one of the important lines of defense to ensure the reliable operation of the power grid. The design and selection of the transformer will have an important impact on its operating life and economy. Correct type selection can not only save one-time investment, but also greatly reduce operating costs; unreasonable type selection will lead to waste of funds and even cause safety accidents. At present, the State Grid Corporation of China is actively promoting the management of transformer life cycle cost (Life Cycle Cost, LCC). The life cycle cost of a transformer includes not only the manufacturing cost of transformer equipment selection, design, manu...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] 2) Most of the current life-cycle cost optimization problems of transformers are based on deterministic modeling methods, which cannot fully take into account various unknown and unpredictable uncertain factors under various operating conditions of transformers. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a probability The Transformer Whole Life Cycle Analysis Method

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