Wind power unit commitment contained modeling method considering predication error timing sequence distribution
A prediction error, wind turbine technology, applied in wind power generation, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problem of not giving selection basis risk value size, unconfidence level and the corresponding relationship between spinning reserve and other problems
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[0051] The present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with accompanying drawing:
[0052] The invention provides a method for establishing a combined model including wind turbines considering the time series distribution of prediction errors, which includes the following steps:
[0053] (1) Extracting the measured wind power data within the set time period of the wind farm to be measured;
[0054] (2) Carry out day-ahead prediction (power prediction 24 hours in advance) to the data, and obtain the trend of prediction error variation under different prediction periods;
[0055] (3) Fitting the prediction error by using the time series segmented fitting method which is fitted separately at different time periods, to obtain the fitting curves of the prediction error at different time periods;
[0056] (4) Classify the backup cost of wind power, and correspond to different confidence level intervals in the forecast error fitting curve distribution of each type of...
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