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A New Oilfield Production Prediction Method

A production forecasting and oilfield technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problem of inability to consider the role of historical data of oil production, inability to consider the role of multiple factors, inability to consider the asynchronous change of factors, and with after-effects the dynamic relationship of

Active Publication Date: 2018-11-30
CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEM CORP +1
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Problems solved by technology

In the field of single-factor forecasting, the main research method adopted is curve fitting, which can only consider the change of a single factor and cannot consider the effects of multiple factors.
In the field of multi-factor forecasting, either the method cannot consider the role of historical data of oil production, or it is a static problem, which cannot consider the dynamic relationship between factors that change asynchronously and have aftereffects

Method used

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  • A New Oilfield Production Prediction Method
  • A New Oilfield Production Prediction Method
  • A New Oilfield Production Prediction Method

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Embodiment Construction

[0024] In order to make the above and other objects, features and advantages of the present invention more comprehensible, preferred embodiments are listed below and described in detail in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0025] Such as figure 1 as shown, figure 1 It is a flow chart of a specific embodiment of a new oil field production prediction method of the present invention. In step 101, the target oilfield A to be predicted is selected to carry out production forecast and risk assessment, and the process enters step 103.

[0026] In step 103, a preliminary screening determines factors affecting yield. Starting from the factors that affect oilfield production, the factors that may affect oilfield production are screened. Preliminary investigation of the factors affecting the production of new wells in oilfield A is the comprehensive water cut reflecting the oilfield development stage, the recovery degree reflecting the material basis, the controlled reserv...

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Abstract

The invention provides a novel method for predicting oil field output. The method includes preliminary sorting and determining the factors affecting outputs, processing the basic data, whitening independent variables, establishing time sequence model of the independent variables, determining the factors that determine the influence output, and establishing an output prediction model by the time sequence model and detecting the rationality of the model. The method is applied to sorting factors influencing output, output prediction and risk evaluation, identifying the decisive factor of the output of an oil field, predicting the output and carrying risk evaluation on output.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of oil field development, in particular to a new oil field output prediction method. Background technique [0002] Oilfield production forecast is an important content in oilfield development work, and it is of great significance to grasp the oilfield development situation and adjust the oilfield development plan. There are many methods for oil field production prediction. From the perspective of statistical and information-based forecasting methods, it can be divided into two levels, one is single-factor forecasting, and the other is multi-factor forecasting. In the field of single-factor forecasting, the main research method adopted is curve fitting, which can only consider the change of a single factor and cannot consider the effects of multiple factors. In the field of multi-factor forecasting, either the method cannot consider the role of historical data of oil production, or it is a static problem, w...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 王滨颜子赵伟彭国红张超张金铸张孝天孙颖丁力
Owner CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEM CORP
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