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Wind electricity probability prediction-based dispatch demonstration method

A probabilistic forecasting and wind power technology, applied in forecasting, wind power generation, single grid parallel feed arrangement, etc., to achieve the effect of reducing energy waste, reducing power purchase costs, and improving the ability to accept wind power

Active Publication Date: 2015-08-05
BEIJING E TECHSTAR
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for dispatching and displaying forecasts based on wind power probability, so as to solve the aforementioned problems in the prior art

Method used

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  • Wind electricity probability prediction-based dispatch demonstration method
  • Wind electricity probability prediction-based dispatch demonstration method
  • Wind electricity probability prediction-based dispatch demonstration method

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Embodiment

[0056] refer to figure 1 , the scheduling display method based on wind power probability prediction described in this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0057] S1, establishing a wind power probability prediction model based on component sparse Bayesian learning, and obtaining prediction information according to the wind power probability prediction model;

[0058] The forecast information includes: the expected value and variance of the output power of the wind farm during the expected period;

[0059] S2. According to the prediction information, establish a system risk model that constrains the upper limit of the power probability dispatching, and formulate a power generation planning and arrangement strategy according to the results of the power system probability dispatching model;

[0060] S3. Perform wind power probability prediction according to the power generation plan arrangement strategy, and obtain and display the wind power probability prediction result; ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a wind electricity probability prediction-based dispatch demonstration method and belongs to the electric power industry regulation technical field. The method includes the following steps: S1, establishing a wind electricity power probability prediction model based on component sparse Bayesian learning, and obtaining prediction information according to the wind electricity power probability prediction model; S2, establishing a model constraining electric power probability dispatch upper limit and considering system risks according to the prediction information, and formulating a power generation plan arrangement strategy according to the result of an electric power system probability dispatch model; S3, performing wind electricity probability prediction according to the power generation plan arrangement strategy, and obtaining and demonstrating the result of wind electricity probability prediction; and S4, realizing wind electricity probability prediction-based dispatch according to the demonstration result. With the method the invention adopted, the errors of short-term wind field output power value prediction values can be decreased, and the accuracy of power generation plans can be improved, and risks that power generation of a power system does not satisfy loads can be eliminated, nearly 10% of wind electricity absorption volume can be increased, and the economic benefits of power grid enterprises can be increased.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of regulation and control of the electric power industry, in particular to a dispatching display method for forecasting based on wind power probability. Background technique [0002] In the existing technology, due to large-scale random wind power grid connection, the traditional power system dominated by deterministic thermal power and hydropower has become a random-deterministic mutual coupling power system. Since the volatility of wind power generation is difficult to predict accurately, it brings many new challenges to the safe operation of the grid, multi-energy generation coordination, reserve capacity optimization, frequency regulation, voltage regulation, and load tracking after it is connected to the grid. When a 10-million-kilowatt wind farm is connected to the grid through a long-distance transmission system, the maximum power fluctuation at the access point may reach 4 million kilowatts. Overloa...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06H02J3/38
CPCY02E10/76Y02P80/20Y04S10/50
Inventor 钱苏晋
Owner BEIJING E TECHSTAR
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