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A hierarchical load forecasting method for distribution network based on topology

A technology of load forecasting and topology, which is applied in the field of power systems, can solve problems such as errors, omissions, and impact accuracy, and achieve the effects of reliable forecasting results, expanding the number of samples, and reducing error rates

Active Publication Date: 2017-10-31
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +3
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, due to omissions and errors in data collection and layer-by-layer transmission, and load prediction is generally based directly on the load data of the transformer or bus where it is located, the source of data samples for power equipment is relatively single, and this prediction method will undoubtedly have large errors
In addition, due to the operation mode of the existing information collection system of the electric power sector, the load samples are insufficient, especially in special cases such as holidays. The number of samples is difficult to meet the precision requirements
On the one hand, inaccurate data directly affects the forecast results; on the other hand, the single source of data samples makes the forecasting insufficient tolerance and immunity to data, which has limitations. Once the sample data has a large error, it will directly affect the forecast results; Affected accuracy improvement

Method used

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  • A hierarchical load forecasting method for distribution network based on topology
  • A hierarchical load forecasting method for distribution network based on topology
  • A hierarchical load forecasting method for distribution network based on topology

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Embodiment Construction

[0032] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with examples.

[0033] Such as figure 1 As shown, a topology-based distribution network hierarchical load forecasting method includes the following steps:

[0034] Step 1: Read the historical power consumption information of power users from the smart meter, and read the historical load information of the station area from the station area meter;

[0035] Step 2: Based on the historical power consumption information of power users, use the existing load forecasting method to obtain the initial value of daily load forecast power for each power user;

[0036] a. Divide the types of days into working days, non-holiday rest days, and holidays, and combine the influence of meteorological data, according to the analysis of gray correlation degree, select a few days with higher correlation degree from the same type of day samples as similar days, so that Get load days with high similarity as samples and re...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a distribution network layering load forecasting method based on topology. A distribution network is layered according to a topology connection relation, forecasting is conducted on the layers respectively, a total forecasting result is obtained by summing in an optimizing mode, summarizing load data of a 10 kV outgoing line switch are read, and contrastive analysis is conducted on the data and the forecasting result. Forecasting accuracy is improved obviously, an intelligent distribution network system is utilized effectively, deep mining based on big data is achieved, the immunity to the data is improved, and lean management of the distribution network is achieved easily.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power systems, and in particular relates to a topology-based distribution network layered load forecasting method. Background technique [0002] Accurate short-term power load forecasting has important reference significance for the daily dispatch of the power sector. Most of the existing load forecasting methods are aimed at busbars and transformers. By analyzing their historical load data and adding meteorological factors, the load forecasting of busbars, transformers and other power equipment is directly carried out. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, researchers have done a lot of work on improving the algorithm of load forecasting, such as combining neural network and genetic algorithm, and using the improved least squares support vector machine method, etc. These improved methods have achieved certain results. Effect. However, due to omissions and errors in data collection and layer-by-layer trans...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F17/30
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 漆铭钧李欣然朱亮陈鸿琳冷华贺悝朱吉然童莹
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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