Photovoltaic power generation power prediction method and system

Abstract

The invention discloses a photovoltaic power generation power prediction method and system. A correlation analysis method is adopted to analyze historical data and determine a radiation intensity predication correlation time and a power generation power predication correlation time. A BP neural network is adopted to train a solar radiation intensity prediction sample and a photovoltaic power generation power prediction sample so as to obtain a solar radiation intensity prediction model and a photovoltaic power generation power prediction model. The solar radiation intensity prediction model is utilized to compute sun radiation intensity at prediction time of a prediction day; the photovoltaic power generation power prediction model is utilized to compute photovoltaic power generation power at prediction time of the prediction day. A grey relational analysis method is adopted to remove solar radiation intensity at the radiation intensity correlation time with a low relational degree in the historical data, and the predication accuracy of the solar radiation intensity is improved. By the adoption of the good nonlinear function approximation capability of the BP neural network, the solar radiation intensity prediction sample and the photovoltaic power generation power prediction sample are trained, the prediction models are built, and predication accuracy of the prediction models is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power systems, in particular to a photovoltaic power prediction method and system. Background technique [0002] Photovoltaic power generation is an effective way to utilize solar energy, but the output power of photovoltaic power generation system has the characteristics of discontinuity and uncertainty. After the photovoltaic power generation system is connected to the grid, it will have periodic impacts on the grid, and the disturbance of the output power of the photovoltaic system may affect the stability of the grid. Therefore, forecasting the output power of photovoltaic power plants is helpful for coordinating the coordinated configuration of conventional power sources and photovoltaic power generation, adjusting the scheduling plan in a timely manner, and rationally arranging the operation mode of the power grid. [0003] The prediction of photovoltaic power generation generally adopts artificial...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

No matter which method is used, there is a disadvantage of low accuracy of photovoltaic power generation prediction due to low accuracy of data collection

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